Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-IIVIAGE World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5297 8225 11298 14719 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion USS 21.0 0.0 45.3 0.0 111.3 0.0 248.5 0.0 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 50 40 98 50 35 0 272 40 44 145 108 91 0 428 22 65 203 229 262 0 781 16 99 191 341 444 0 1092 Primary Energy EJ Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Non-commercial NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro Total 82 116 78 1 6 17 344 101 175 187 6 40 37 546 253 235 396 46 22 107 1059 237 178 458 71 16 344 1304 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 4.3 3.8 7.4 10.5 12.2 21.6 21.5 35.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 172.4 282.9 415.3 570.7 749.2 9.39.9 1131.6 1324.4 1518.4 1713.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.98 9.07 12.10 15.14 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 2.04 3.01 2.29 1.56 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.02 12.08 14.39 16.70 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 408 493 537 581 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 9.6 12.2 12.7 13.3 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 69.9 70.7 83.8 96.9 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 CO MtCO 879 877 812 748 713 678 NMVOC Mt 139 141 154 166 165 163 NOx MtN 31 32 37 42 55 68 18.17 0.84 19.01 625 13.9 110.0 312 92 104 642 161 82 18.05 1.07 19.12 653 14.5 104.9 384 113 122 669 167 17.93 1.30 19.23 681 15.0 99.7 457 129 129 696 172 78 17.81 1.53 19.34 709 15.6 94.6 549 148 135 723 177 77 17.69 1.76 19.45 737 16.2 89.4 662 168 153 750 183 75 17,57 1,99 19,56 765 16,7 84,3 753 178 165 776 188 73
Statistical Table 477 Scenario A2G-IMAGE OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 801 953 1068 1393 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 16.5 30.7 57.7 109.6 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Ottiers Total EJ 6 7 51 34 21 119 4 7 55 49 46 161 2 9 56 66 70 201 2 17 57 103 111 289 Primary Energy EJ Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Non-commercial NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro Total 24 55 51 1 6 10 147 17 62 96 22 202 23 58 119 6 2 40 248 36 50 151 11 2 80 330 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 1.0 2.4 5.1 2.5 4.4 11.4 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 66.5 103.2 142.6 184.6 229.0 276.0 325.8 378.2 433.4 491.2 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.40 3.60 3.77 3.95 4.12 4.29 4.45 4.62 4.78 4.95 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.22 0.30 0.37 0.45 0.55 0.66 0.76 0.87 0.98 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.82 4.07 4.32 4.57 4.84 5.11 5.38 5.65 5.92 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 88 103 107 111 116 121 127 133 139 144 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 13.4 9.8 10.7 11.6 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.9 17.1 18.2 HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17 SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16 CO MtCO 179 161 123 85 87 89 91 96 102 107 113 118 NMVOC Mt 42 36 35 34 36 37 38 40 43 45 48 50 NOx MtN 13 12 11 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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Page 434 and 435: 426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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