Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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354 Open Process Open Process The Terms of Reference of this Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) include a so-called "open process" to stimulate input from a community of experts much broader than the writing team (see Appendices I and П). IPCC documents should take into account as many scientific perspectives as possible. This is particularly important in the area of scenarios, for which views on the plausibility of various aspects of the described futures and their interactions can differ between regions, between different sectors of society, and between individual experts. The SRES web site (sres.ciesin.org) was created to facilitate the open process and to help gain input from a community of expeits much broader than the writing team. The web site: Includes a description of SRES acdvhies and the scenaiio development process. Provides detailed information on the four marker scenarios and their storylines. • Offers facilities to view and plot scenario driving forces and emissions. • Offers facilities to receive feedback from the open process. The open process lasted from June 1998 to January 1999. As a result of the interest in SRES scenarios, the web site is accessible to acquire updated information about SRES marker scenarios. For other reasons and the input received so far, the information on the web site has been improved and updated considerably. The writing team recommends that the web site also be maintained in the future so that it is available to access updated infonnation on SRES scenarios. However, this will require additional resources. The four marker scenarios were posted on the IPCC web site (sres.ciesin.org) in June 1998. The submissions invited through the open process and web site fell into three categories: Table VI-1: SRES web site access summary by month, from M y 1998 to March 1999. Month Unique non-CIESIN Total non-CIESIN hosts connected www accesses July 1998 (20-31) 17 65 August 1998 143 2,214 September 1998 610 6,217 October 1998 425 4,083 November 1998 313 3,696 December 1998 455 5,170 January 1999 497 5,946 February 1999 468 5,764 March 1999(1-5) 103 1,064 Total 3,031 34,219 Most of the submissions received fall into the first two categories above. Altogether, more than 34,000 accesses to the SRES web site were registered by April 1999 from some 3,000 unique hosts that were connected. Tables VI-1 and VI-2 and Figure VI-1 give more detail about the number of monthly accesses between July 1998 and March 1999 and about accesses from different countries and temtories during the same period. Tables VI-3 and VI-4 give details of the preliminary marker scenarios. The web site is managed by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in the US, in collaboration with the Energy Research Foundation (ECN) in the Netherlands, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) of Working Group III on Mitigation of IPCC at the National Institute of Public Health and Environment (RIVM) in the Netherlands, and the Intemational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria. Additional scenarios published in the reviewed literature that had not been included in the scenario database (see Appendix V). New scenarios based on the SRES marker scenarios. General suggestions to improve the work of the SRES writing team as posted on the web site (preferably based on referenced literature). The submissions were used to revise the marker scenarios and to develop additional alternatives within each of the four scenario families. The result is a more complete, refined set of new scenarios that reflects the broad spectrum of modeling approaches and regional perspectives. The preliminary scenarios posted on the web site were provided to climate modelers also, with the approval of the IPCC Bureau.
Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES web site access summary by countries and territories, from July 1998 to March 1999. Accesses Internet domain Country/Territory Accesses Internet domain Country/Territory 36 ar Argentina 6 lb Lebanon 676 at Austria 8 lu Luxembourg 373 au Australia 3 my Malaysia 26 ba Bosnia and Herzegovina 17 mx Mexico 333 be Belgium 22 Ik Sri Lanka 81 br Brazil 3424 nl Netherlands 715 ca Canada 803 no Norway 301 ch Switzerland 154 nz New Zealand 14 cn China 206 pi Poland 10 cl Chile 94 pt Portugal 16 cr Costa Rica 47 ru Russian Federation 11 cz Czech Republic 3 sa Saudi Arabia 1085 de Germany 155 se Sweden 203 dk Denmark 13 sg Singapore 3 ec Ecuador 10 si Slovenia 9 ее Estonia 49 za Soutli Africa 204 es Spain 23 th Thailand 297 fi Finland 15 tw Taiwan, province of China 3 ÍJ Fiji 4 tt Trinidad and Tobago 262 fr France 12 tz Tanzania 13 gb Great Britain (UK) 3 ua Ukraine 12 gr Greece 1921 uk United Kingdom 7 hr Croatia 74 us United States 23 hk Hong Kong 3 uy Uruguay 36 bu Hungary 2894 com US Commercial 20 id Indonesia 2948 edu US Educational 11 ie Ireland 1736 gov US Government 34 il Israel 9 int Intemational 35 in India 78 mil US Military 6 is Iceland 1723 net Network 320 it Italy 806 org Non-Profit Organization 1991 jp Japan 8613 unresolved IP addresses only 20 kr Republic of Korea (South) Figure VM: SRES web site access summary by countries and territories, from August 1998 to February 1999.
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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Page 311 and 312: Summary Discussions and Recommendat
Page 329: SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
Page 332 and 333: 324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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Page 339 and 340: Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Page 344 and 345: 336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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Page 356 and 357: 348 Data Description Database Descr
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Page 361: Open Process
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Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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404 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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