Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Scenario Standardization One of the primary reasons for developing emissions scenarios is to enable coordinated studies of climate change, climate impacts, and mitigation options and strategies. With the multi-model approach used in the SRES process, 1990 and 2000 emissions do not agree in scenarios developed usmg different models. In addition, even with agreed reference values, it is time consuming and often impractical to fine-tune most mtegrated assessment models to reproduce a particular desned result. Nevertheless, differences in the base year and 2000 emissions may lead to confusion among the scenario users. Therefore, the 1990 and 2000 emission estimates were standardized in all the SRES scenarios, with emissions diverging after the year 2000. The procedure for selectmg 1990 and 2000 emission values and the subsequent adjustments to scenario emissions are described in this box. The standardized scenarios share the same values for emissions in both 1990 and 2000. Emissions for the year 2000 are, of course, not yet known and 1990 emissions are also uncertain. The 1990 and 2000 emission estimates for all gases, except SOj, were set to be equal to the averages of initial values in the unadjusted four marker scenarios. This was carried out at the fourregion level, and summed to obtahi the standardized global totals. The resultant estimates are within relevant uncertainty ranges for each substance, but should not be interpreted as "endorsed" by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to represent values for either global or regional emissions. Rather, they are the standardized base-year estimates used for the emissions scenarios. From 2000 to 2100, emissions in all the scenarios (except CO2 emissions from land-use and SO2 emissions) were adjusted by applying a constant offset equal to the difference between the standardized 2000 value and the scenario-speciñc 2000 value. The puфose was to smooth scenario trajectories between 2000 and 2010. This procedure results in small distortions for those emissions that rise with time, or at least that do not ultimately decrease by a large amount as compared to the base year. However, for emissions that fall significantly over time, such as those from deforestation or of SOj, this procedure can cause more significant distortions and can even change the sign of the emission estimates at later times (i.e., change positive emission estimates into negative ones and vice versa). To avoid these distortions, for the aforementioned emissions, the year 2000 offset was reduced by 10% per decade, cumulatively, to make the offset zero by the year 2100. This allows preservation of the shape of emission trajectories and still ensures the 2000 standardization. The non-standardized scenario values are available from the modeling teams upon request, although the standardized values should be used for most purposes. • Similar future cumulative COj emissions may emerge from different sets of driving forces; • Conversely, similar future states of the world with respect to socio-economic development may yield different outcomes in terms of cumulative CO^ emissions. Similar cumulative CO2 emissions can be attained in very different social, economic, and technological circumstances. High emission levels of the A2 marker scenario (A2-ASF) are also attained in all the Al family scenarios with high fossil-fuel use (AIC and AIG groups), for example in AIG-MiniCAM. Medium-high emissions are attained in most of the Al group scenarios (including the AIB marker, AlB-AIM), but also in scenarios from the B2 scenario family with high fossil-fuel use (e.g., B2-ASF). Medium-low emissions, which are characteristic of the B2 family, including the B2 marker (B2- MESSAGE), are also attained in the A2-A1-MiniCAM scenario, which illustrates the transition between the A2 and Al families. Finally, low emission levels resuh from almost all the Bl family scenarios (including the ВI marker, Bl-IMAGE) as well as from scenarios that belong to the AIT hightechnology scenario group (e.g., AIT-MARIA). In Table 5-2, italics are used for examples of scenarios within each emission category that illustrate altemative ways to achieve cumulative COj emissions similar to those of the marker scenarios. 5.3. Carbon Dioxide COT is the largest contributor to anthropogenic radiative forcing of the atmosphere. As described in more detail in Chapter 3, the main sources of anthropogenic COj emissions are fossil fuel combustion and the net release of carbon from changes in teirestrial ecosystems, commonly refen-ed to as land-use changes. To a lesser extent, CO^ is emitted by industrial activities, in particular by cement production (Table 5-3). 5.3.1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels and Industry As shown in Table 5-3, fossil fuels were the main source of CO, emissions in 1990. Therefore, it is expected that future CO2 emission levels will depend primarily on the total energy consumption and the structure of energy supply. The total
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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