Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Emission Scenarios 291
Box 5-5: Gridding of Emission Data
The cHmate effects of SO^ are intrinsically regional and emissions on a latitude-longitude grid are required as input to climate
models. Emissions of SOj were first standardized for four world regions as described above. Then, emissions from the marker
scenarios for six regions (OECD90, REF, Centrally Planned Asia, Rest of Asia, Latin America, and Africa/Middle East, scaled
to match the standardized emissions) were used for gridding purposes. For the Aimex П countries, a value of 23 MtS was taken
for 1990 emissions, a figure derived from a compilafion of country-level emissions inventories (Smith et al., 2000).
These emissions were mapped to a global 1° x 1° emissions grid. For each region, the pattern of total SO^ emissions from the
EDGAR database (Olivier et ai, 1996) was scaled by the total emissions for that region and a time period. Emissions for
OECD90 countries were first scaled individually to their country-specific values. The value of 3 MtS was added to reflect
intemational shipping, with the pattern and magnitude of these emissions held constant.
Emissions of other short-lived gases (CO, N0^^, NMVOCs, and CH^) also needed to be mapped to a global grid for use in
atmospheric chemistry models. The approach taken was essentially the same, with the EDGAR database used to establish the
spatial pattern. Standardization and subsequent gridding were carried out at the level of the origmal four world regions, and no
specific adjustments were made for intemational shipping.
In "high income regions" (OECD90, REF) sulfur emissions
have already passed their peaks and are actually declining at
present. This trend is expected to continue in all the markers,
except A2 in which an increased use of coal "counters" a
decline in specific emissions in OECD90 (Figure 5-20).
Emissions in ASIA grow in all the markers by 2020, and then
decline by 2050, and further decline by 2100. The most
dramatic decline is registered in the AIB marker; this is related
to its aggressive assumptions on the introduction of low-sulfur
technologies and fuel switching in the ASIA region (see Box 5-
3 for more details). Unlike ASIA, the ALM region sees
increases in emissions in all four markers from 2020 to 2050,
because of the somewhat "mixed" nature of this region, which
combines countries with substantially different affluence levels
and development trends. However, by 2100, when low-sulfur
technology becomes widely available everywhere, emissions in
the ALM decline in all markers (Figure 5-20).
5.6.2. Gridded Sulfur Emissions
As discussed above, global sulfur emissions eventually decline
in all SRES scenario families and associated groups. In
addition, the regional distribution of emissions changes
drastically over time. While in previous decades major sulfur
emitters were located primarily in industrialized regions of the
world, presently emissions for these sources are declining
because of the introduction of cleaner fuels and the conversion
to low-sulfur technologies to comply with environmental
regulations. In the majority of SRES scenarios, this trend is
expected to continue. Meanwhile, less-developed regions are
anticipated to experience strong economic growth associated
with an increased demand for energy. Especially in the short
term, fossil fuels are likely to satisfy the major share of this
new demand, which may lead to a steep initial growth in sulfur
emissions. As mentioned eariier (see Section 5.5.2), at some
point in time sulfur emissions will be controlled in all the
scenarios and, together with shifts to essentially sulfur-free
energy resources, they will decrease in the developing regions
as they are decreasing now in the industrialized world. As a
consequence of these complex dynamics, different countries
and regions are bound to experience very different levels of
sulfur emissions over the 2P' century. To illustrate this. Figure
5-21 shows gridded sulfur emissions in 1990 and 2050 in the
AIB marker (see Box 5-5).
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