Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-MARIA World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6091 6891 7672 8372 8930 9367 9704 9960 10159 10306 10414 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 19.5 27.2 37.0 49.7 64.0 83.1 108.0 130.5 156.3 182.0 206.2 232.9 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 48 40 45 55 80 124 174 234 287 328 333 264 Liquids 138 159 180 204 229 261 292 308 301 317 348 375 Gas 56 56 87 119 141 144 132 118 115 96 86 148 Electricity 35 49 60 71 84 95 116 125 141 152 158 159 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 278 305 371 449 535 625 714 784 844 893 925 946 Primary Energy EJ Coal 90 71 68 72 93 135 182 239 291 331 335 265 Oil 123 140 150 167 172 181 197 189 152 131 14! 185 Gas 71 99 147 190 222 248 217 196 188 164 147 202 Nuclear 22 21 28 26 27 44 69 112 180 228 264 233 Biomass 28 32 40 62 97 107 114 132 159 192 212 225 Other Renewables 9 8 7 7 6 6 58 62 61 60 59 58 Total 343 372 441 523 617 721 837 931 1031 1107 1159 1169 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.9 1.6 2,3 3.0 3.9 5.3 7.1 9.5 12.4 15.7 19.1 Oil 0.0 1.2 2.6 4.1 5.8 7.5 9.3 11.3 13.2 14.7 16.0 17.4 Gas 0.0 0.7 1.7 3,2 5.1 7.3 9.8 11.9 13.9 15.8 17.4 18.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 166.5 260.4 365.3 484.0 616.0 757.3 904.8 1055.4 1207.2 1358.9 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1451 1451 1457 1743 1937 2049 2079 1999 1868 1701 1578 1500 3395 3395 3392 3114 2944 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 2904 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 219 396 519 597 4138 4138 4138 4138 4138 4122 4124 4138 4138 4138 4138 4138 4061 4061 4058 4051 4027 3970 3937 3924 3916 3907 3907 3907 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 Anthropogenic Emissions (standai'dized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 7.75 8.85 10.00 11.66 12.74 13.72 14.19 14.46 14.49 14.42 1.11 1.07 1.09 1.08 1.05 1.04 0.96 0.83 0.77 0.70 0.71 0.73 7.10 7.97 8.84 9.93 11.05 12.70 13.70 14.55 14.96 15.16 15.20 15.15 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69
Statistical Table 557 Scenario B2-MARIA OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population MilUon 859 917 953 982 994 988 976 965 952 941 934 928 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.6 20.7 26.1 30.2 33.4 37.1 41.1 43.8 47.9 52.9 57.7 62.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 12 8 6 4 13 29 50 65 76 83 89 75 Liquids 71 80 74 67 62 58 55 52 51 50 50 50 Gas 28 26 45 61 62 53 37 26 18 13 9 20 Electricity 21 28 32 35 37 38 40 41 43 44 45 46 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 132 142 157 167 174 178 182 184 188 190 194 192 Primary Energy EJ Coal 38 28 20 15 22 36 56 69 79 85 90 76 Oil 71 80 74 67 62 58 55 52 51 50 50 50 Gas 34 49 79 102 107 100 75 63 55 49 43 51 Nuclear 18 15 12 13 16 20 24 30 38 45 54 65 Biomass 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 Other Renewables 5 5 4 4 3 3 15 14 14 14 14 13 Total 171 180 193 202 212 218 225 230 237 244 252 255 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.4 Oil 0,0 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 Gas 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 65.9 100.1 135.8 173.1 211.3 250.1 290.3 331.4 373.3 414.3 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Million ha Cropland 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 378 303 243 Grasslands 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 134 Forest 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 756 Others 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 794 Total 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 2684 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 2.83 3.20 3.36 3.42 3.59 3.76 3.81 3.93 4.04 4.09 4,13 3.86 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.12 2.83 3.20 3.38 3.47 3.66 3.80 3.83 3.95 4.07 4.16 4.22 3.98 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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Page 514 and 515: 506 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551: 542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
Page 552 and 553: 544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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Page 562 and 563: 554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
Page 566 and 567: 558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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Page 580 and 581: 572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 582 and 583: 574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 584 and 585: 576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 586 and 587: 578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589: 580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591: 582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593: 584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595: 586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
Page 596 and 597: 588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
Page 598 and 599: 590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
Page 600 and 601: 592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
Page 602 and 603: 594 Glossary of Terms standards for
Page 605 and 606: XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Page 607: List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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