Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Open Process 371
Preliminary Bl Marker Scenario -ASIA (Open process version, date of submission: 10/7/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 2790 3924 4209 2875
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.42 6.57 29.92 119.6
GNP/GDP (US$/cap) 508 1675 7108 41615
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 28.4 21.3 6.1 2.7
Solids 16.4 12.9 12.9 11.9
Liquids 13.9 28.9 41.3 23.3
Gas 2 20.5 42.9 45
Electricity 4.6 29.5 82.1 157.4
Others
Total 65.3 113.1 185.3 240.3
Primary Energy by Fuel
Coal 26.1 36.7 46.6 18.3
Oil (excluding feedstocks) 17 39.3 48.8 13
Gas (excluding feedstocks) 3.9 45.4 56.8 26
Non-Fossil Electricity (Nuclear/Solar) 0.4 5.6 40.3 157.4
Biomass 0.1 6 41.1 37.5
Other Renewables (Hydro/Fuelwood) 29.4 23.6 10 7.5
Total 76.9 156.5 243.6 259.7
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
Coal 1.09 2.01 3.01 4.56
Oil 0.2 0.84 1.58 2.03
Gas 0.07 0.86 2.38 3.82
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 13 66 151 273
Carbon Sequestration in GtC 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
Land Use in Million ha
Cropland 382.3 316.8 336.7 237.0
Grasslands 560.5 777.7 768.3 366.2
Energy Biomass 1.0 11.9 104.7 134.8
Forest 487.7 375.6 318.5 571.6
Others 544.5 493.8 447.7 666.3
Total 1976 1976 1976 1976
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
CO, (as C) in GtC 1.1 2.5 3.1 1.3
Other CO2 (as C) in GtC 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Total CO2 (as C) in GtC 1.4 2.6 3.4 1.6
CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4 122 149 179 137
N,0 total (as N) in Mt NjO-N 2.6 3.2 3.7 2.9
SÓ^ total (as S) in MtS 15.3 20.9 16.5 5.2
CO (as CO) in Mt CO 204 260 365 264
VOCs in Mt 14 18 24 18
N0^ (as N) in MtN 5.4 12.3 16.6 7.0
* at market exchange rate