Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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234 An Overview of Scenarios ГЧ te S ГЧ fV) rv| n tfl CQ CQ 03 CQ сл ад fN
An Overview of Scenarios 235 considerable uncertainty and scenario variability remains. For instance, features of technological and land-use changes can be interpreted quite differently within the framework of different models, even if they conform to the overall conceptual description and "scenario logic" described in a particular scenario family. In some instances the broad outlines of scenario driving forces were not followed entirely in particular scenario quantifications, but alternative scenario interpretations were submitted. These highlight important scenario uncertainties or express scientific disagreements within the writing team, as for future labor productivity growth and economic "catch-up" possibilities of currently developing countries. These alternative scenario interpretations and different model quantifications are presented here to reflect the SRES Terms of Reference for an open process and the use of multiple modeling approaches, even if this necessarily increases complexity and reduces simplicity and transparency in discussion of a large number of scenario quantifications. To guide readers through the different driving-force assumptions that characterize the various scenarios. Tables 4-2 and 4-3 give an overview of the SRES scenario set. They classify scenarios that share important input assumptions (hannonized scenarios share global population and GDP assumptions) from scenarios that offer alternative quantifications. Table 4-4 summarizes the main quantitative scenario descriptors for each of the four SRES scenario families of the "harmonized" scenario category. Here an attempt is made to link this information with the resultant scenario outcomes (emissions) that are discussed in more detail in Chapter 5. In Chapter 5, an additional, complementary scenario classification scheme to that used in this chapter is presented and focuses on driving forces. Scenarios are classified according to their cumulative carbon emissions (1990 to 2100, all sources), the best single quantitative indicator available to compare emission scenarios that portray widely different dynamics and different combinations and magnitude of a variety of emission categories. Four categories of cumulative emissions, Low (1800 GtC) are presented. Table 4-20 links the scenario overview from Tables 4-2 and 4-3 with this information to guide readers through the differences in scenarios. Table 4-20 indicates that in most cases there is an easily discernable direct connection between main scenario characteristics of a paiticular scenario family or scenario group and the resultant outcomes in terms of cumulative emissions. For instance, in the high GDP, high energy demand scenario family AI, all scenarios within the two scenaiio groups that are fossil fuel and technologies intensive (AIC and AIG combined into AlFI in the SPM) result in high cumulative carbon emissions. Conversely, cumulative emissions of the "efficiency and dematerialization" (without additional climate initiatives) scenario family Bl are generally in the "low" emissions category, but two model quantifications indicate medium-low emissions. For the scenario family B2, outcomes in tenns of cumulative carbon emissions can also be related clearly to scenario characteristics. One group of scenarios (which includes the B2 marker) adopts an incrementalist perspective of technological change ("dynamics as usual") applied to medium levels of population and GDP (and resultant energy demand) and results in medium-low cumulative carbon emissions. Another group of scenarios explored the sensitivity of a gradual retum to coal-based technologies (B2C-MARIA, B2-ASF), in one case combined with higher energy demand than in the other scenarios (B2High-MiniCAM); and results in higher cumulative emissions (Medium-High category in Table 4-20). Equally discernable in Table 4-20 is the wide range in cumulative carbon emissions that characterize the various scenario groups within the Al scenario family. By design, the different scenario groups within this family explored the implications of different directions of technological change, ranging from carbon-intensive developments (AIC and AIG, combined into AlFI in the SPM) to decarbonization (AIT), with the "balanced" technology development scenario group taking an intermediary position. Different developments concerning fossil or non-fossil resource and technology availability in a less populated but affluent and thus high energy demand world (such as Al) can lead to widely different outcomes in terms of cumulative emissions, with a range as wide as that spanned by all four scenario families together. Technology can thus be as important a driving force as population and GDP growth combined. In other words, very different emissions outcomes are possible for future worlds that otherwise share similar developments of main driving forces such as population and economic growth and high rates of technological change. However, areas of overlap and uncertainties of scenario outcomes (cumulative emissions) occur even for scenario quantifications that share otherwise similar assumptions for the main scenario drivers. Not surprisingly, differences in quantifications are largest within the Al "balanced" technological progress scenario group, which includes the AIB marker scenario. Most model interpretaflons result in cumulative carbon emissions within the Medium-High category (1450-1800 GtC). However, there are also scenario quantifications in which technological change tilts more in the direction of the AIC (AI-ASF) or AIT (Al-MARIA) scenario groups that favor fossil (coal) or post-fossil (nuclear, renewables, and biomass) technologies, respectively. This leads to very wide differences in cumulative emissions, from the Medium-Low through to the High categories. A similar range of scenario outcomes between Medium-High to High categories also characterizes the A2 scenario family that otherwise describes an entirely different world (high population and comparatively low per capita income compared to low population with high per capita income for the Al scenario family; see Table 4-4). Departing from the main scenario characteristics of the A2 scenario family in terms of population and income in direction of lower values (such as in
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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