Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Statistical Table
Scenario AlB-MiniCAM
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (тех)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 15.4 27.2 42.6 67.0 94.1 123.7 155.2 190.3
na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 4 6 9 10 11 9 7 7 7 8
17 22 29 37 43 56 75 98 120 142 167 193
5 7 10 Í3 17 20 22 27 31 35 23 10
3 6 11 18 38 64 94 137 182 228 279 330
0 0 1 4 13 30 54 74 91 107 86 65
27 38 55 78 120 179 256 344 432 518 562 606
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
4 6 9 13 23 3! 39 38 38 37 48 59
20 23 29 38 44 58 80 104 127 149 177 206
7 10 17 29 61 93 127 165 198 226 148 71
0 2 4 7 И 16 21 27 32 38 72 105
0 1 2 3 10 19 31 41 47 49 60 72
Other Renewables 5 6 8 12 16 28 49 89 134 183 226 269
Total 35 48 71 102 165 246 346 464 576 681 731 781
Cumulative Resouices Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 O.l 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.9 7.7 9.4
Gas 0,0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.4 6.2 8.3 9.9 a.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.1 60.7 91.7 130.8 177.9 232.6 294.6 363.9 433.4 496.0
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 391 363 348 344 338 326 310 278 244 206 179 152
Grasslands 1510 1594 1728 1913 2109 2262 2372 2295 2166 1985 1845 1704
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 ! 13 34 64 84 90 82 102 123
Forest 3641 3591 3478 3301 3098 2932 2801 2883 3039 3270 3423 3575
Others 1957 1884 1798 1699 1657 1637 1639 1642 1651 1663 1709 1754
Total 7499 7432 7352 7259 7216 7192 7186 7183 7190 7207 7257 7308
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SP6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
0.72 1.01 1.30 1.72 2.54 3.47 4.53 5.53 6.45 7.27 7,05 6.84
0.73 0.82 0.73 0.97 0.97 0.84 0.58 0.30 0.11 0.03 -0.45 -0.93
Í.45 1.83 2.03 2.69 3.51 4.31 5.11 5.83 6.56 7.30 6.60 5.91
77 85 90 100 125 143 152 163 170 171 147 122
1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0
10.5 12.8 14.7 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.5 10.6 8.2 7.4 8.1 8.8
0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26