Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established jointly by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess periodically the science, impacts, and socioeconomics of climate change and of adaptation and mitigation options. The IPCC provides, on request, scientific and technical advice to the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its bodies. In response to a 1994 evaluation of the earlier IPCC IS92 emissions scenarios, the 1996 Plenaiy of the IPCC requested this Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (see Appendix I for the Teims of Reference). This report was accepted by the Working Group III (WGIII) plenary session in March 2000. The long-term nature and imcertainty of climate change and its driving forces require scenarios that extend to the end of the 21st century. This report describes the new scenarios and how they were developed. The SRES scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions, from demographic to technological and economic developments. As required by the Terms of Reference, none of the scenarios in the set includes any future policies that explicitly address climate change, although all scenarios necessarily encompass various policies of other types. The set of SRES emissions scenarios is based on an extensive assessment of the literature, six alternative modelling approaches, and an "open process" that solicited wide participation and feedback from many groups and individuals. The SRES scenarios include the range of emissions of all relevant species of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfur and their driving forces. The SRES writing team included more than 50 members from 18 countries who represent a broad range of scientific disciplines, regional backgrounds, and non-governmental organizations (see Appendix II). The team, led by Nebojsa Nakicenovic of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, included representatives of six scenario modeling groups and lead authors from all three earUer IPCC scenario activities - the 1990 and 1992 scenarios and the 1994 scenario evaluation. The SRES preparation included six major steps; • analysis of existing scenarios in the literature; • analysis of major scenario characteristics, driving forces, and their relationships; • fonnulation of four narrative scenario "storylines" to describe alternative futures; • quantification of each storyline using a variety of modelling approaches; • an "open" review process of the resultant emission scenarios and their assumptions; and • three revisions of the scenarios and the report subsequent to the open review process, i.e., the formal IPCC Expert Review and the final combined IPCC Expert and Government Review. As required by the Terms of Reference, the SRES preparation process was open with no single "official" model and no exclusive "expert teams." To this end, in 1997 the IPCC advertised in relevant scientific journals and other publications to solicit wide participation in the process. A web site documenting the SRES process and intermediate results was created to facilitate outside input. Members of the writing team also published much of their background research in the peerreviewed literature and on web sites. In June 1998, the IPCC Bureau agreed to make the unapproved, preliminary scenarios available to climate modelers, who could use the scenarios as a basis for the assessment of climatic changes in time for consideration in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report. We recommend that the new scenarios be used not only in the IPCC's future assessments of climate change, its impacts, and adaptation and mitigation options, but also as the basis for analyses by the wider research and policy community of climate change and other environmental problems. Ogunlade Davidson and Bert Metz Co-chairs of IPCC WGIII
S U M M A R Y F O R P O L I C Y M A K E R S S P E C I A L R E P O R T O N E M I S S I O N S C E N A R I O S A Special Report of Working Group Ш of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Based on a draft prepared by: Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Ogunlade Davidson, Gerald Davis, Amulf Griibler, Tom Kram, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Bert Metz, Tsuneyuki Morita, William Pepper, Hugh Pitcher, Alexei Sankovski, Priyadarshi Shukla, Robert Swart, Robert Watson, Zhou Dadi
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Page 6 and 7: Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
Page 10 and 11: C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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Page 16 and 17: 8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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Page 30 and 31: CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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Page 34 and 35: 26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37: 28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39: 30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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Page 42 and 43: 34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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Page 46 and 47: 38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
Page 48 and 49: 40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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