Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Modeling Approaches The SRES Terms of Reference call for a multi-model approach for developing emissions scenarios (see Appendix I). In all, six different modeling approaches were used to generate the 40 SRES scenarios. These six models are representative of the approaches to emissions scenario modeling and the different integrated assessment frameworks used in the scenario literature and include both macro-economic (so-called topdown) and systems-engineering (so-called bottom-up) models. Some modeling teams developed scenarios to reflect all four storylines, while some presented scenarios for fewer storylines. Chapter 4 lists all the SRES scenarios, by modeling group and by scenario family. The six modeling approaches include: IV.l. • Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) from the National Institute of Environmental Studies in Japan (Morita etal., 1994); Atmospheric Stabilization Framework Model (ASF) from ICF Consulting in the USA (Lashof and Tirpak, 1990; Pepper et al., 1992, 1998; Sankovski et al., 2000); Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) from the National Institute for Pubtic Health and Environmental Hygiene (RIVM) (Alcamo et al, 1998; de Vries et ai, 1994, 1999, 2000), used in connection with the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (СРВ) WorldScan model (de Jong and Zalm, 1991), the Netherlands; Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation (MARIA) from the Science University of Tokyo in Japan (Mori and Takahashi, 1999; Mori, 2000); Model for Energy Supply Strategy Altematives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) from the Intemational Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria (Messner and Stmbegger, 1995; Riahi and Roehrl, 2000); and the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in the USA (Edmonds et al, 1994, 1996a, 1996b). Asian Pacific Integrated Model The Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale computer simulation model for scenario analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian-Pacific region. This model is being developed mainly to examine global warming response measures in the region, but it is Unked to a world model so that it is possible to make global estimates. AIM comprises three main models - the GHG emission model (AIM/emission), the global cUmate change model (AIM/climate), and the climate change impact model (AIM/impact). The AIM-based quantification was conducted as an Asian collaborative project using a new lirdicd version of the AIM/emission model, which covers the world but has a more detailed structure for the Asian-Pacific region than for other regions. The new linked version couples bottom-up models and top-down models (Figure IV-1). The bottom-up models were prepared using the original AIM bottom-up components, which can reproduce detailed processes of energy consumption, industrial production, landuse changes, and waste management as well as technology development and social demand changes. However, two kinds of top-down models were prepared for this quantification: An energy-economic model based on the revised Edmonds-Reilly-Barns (ERB) Model, which can estimate interactions between energy sectors and economic sectors. • An original land equilibrium model that can reproduce interactions between land-use changes and economic sectors. The original AIM bottom-up components were integrated with these two top-down models through a newly developed linkage module. This new stracture maximizes the ability to simulate a variety of inputs at a variety of levels, and to calculate future GHG emissions in a relatively full-range analysis. The AIM model has nine regions for the energy-economic model and 17 regions for the bottom-up and land equilibrium models (see Table IV-1). Its time horizon is from 1990 to 2100. Before 2030, h uses 5-year time steps, but then jumps to 2050, 2075, and 2100. The GHGs and related gases include: • Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH^), nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), nitrogen oxides (N0,^), and sulfur dioxide (SOj) etnissions from energy combustion-production processes. CO, from deforestation. CH^ and N2O from agricultural production. • NMVOCs and SOj from biomass combustion. • CO2, CH4, N2O, N0^, CO, NMVOCs. and SOj emissions from industrial processes, waste management, and land-use changes. More detailed information can be obtained by referring to the web site: www-cger.nies.go.jp/ipcc/aim/ The ASF energy model consists of four end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation). These sectors consume liquid fuels, solid fuels, gaseous fuels, and electricity. An electricity generation sector converts liquid fuels, solid fuels, gaseous fuels, nuclear energy, hydro energy, and solar energy into electricity. A synfuels sector converts coal and/or biomass into either a liquid or gaseous fuel. There is no direct consumption of solar energy or biomass by the enduse sectors.
Six Modeling Approaches 337 GDP Socio-Economie <strong>Scenarios</strong> Population I Resource Base Lifestyle AIM/Emission-Linkage Bottom-up Model Endo Use Eneigy Efficiency Social Eueigy Efficiency Technology Change Food Consumption Pattern T Industtial Process Change Industrial Production L GDP I I Populatioii] Eneigy Sewice Demand h Social Eneigy Efficiency Change End Use Technology Efficiency End Use Technology Final Eneigy Demand Resoun:e Base Eneigy Resouice Eneigy Price 4 4 Energy-Economk Final Eneigy Supply Model Exploitation Technology Piimaiy Eneigy Supply Eneigy Conveision Technology Efiiciency Eneigy Conveision Technology GDP iPopulationF Biomass Eneigy Demand I Goods & Savice h Demand Odter Inputs Goods & Service Supply Î Goods and Savice Price Land Input Cropland Pastuie Forest Biomass Fann Other Land Lmd Eqiríübrium Model • LGHGs<strong>Emissions</strong> AIM/Climate Model AIM/Impact Model Figure IV-1: Outline of AIM/emission linkages.
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Page 301 and 302: 6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Page 329: SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
Page 332 and 333: 324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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Page 337 and 338: SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
Page 339 and 340: Ill Definition of SRES World Re
Page 341: Definition of SRES World Regions Me
Page 346 and 347: 338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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Page 356 and 357: 348 Data Description Database Descr
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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