Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

276 Emission Scénarios
180
T 150
Bl Family
•3
B1H[GH \CSSAGE:
BIHIGH MINICAM
ol
1990
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Figure 5-13c: Standardized global SOj emissions in the Bl scenario family. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line
without ticks, the globally hannonized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see
Table 4-3).
5.5.2.1. Al Scenario Family
The Al family of scenarios covers most of the range of the 40
SRES scenarios (Figure 5-13a). The AlB-AIM marker is in the
middle of the range and its trajectory is similar to those of
many other scenarios - a rapid increase in the near term
followed by a decline. Increasing fossil fuel use in developing
countries combined with low levels of SO^ controls produces
the near-term increase in emissions. After 2025, per capita
incomes reach levels at which countries place more emphasis
on the environment, resulting in emission controls on SOj (see
Section 4.4.10). These controls, combined with a transition
from fossil fuels to non-fossil energy, result in declining
emissions. More detailed information as to how SO, emissions
ше treated in the AlB-AIM scenario is provided in Box 5-3 .
Another Al family scenario, AlG-MiniCAM, shows similar
behavior for the same reasons, although the increase and
-B2 MESSAGE
150
[ÜZFamily]
- Í1 - B2ASF
120
90
-B2HÍGH
MIMCAM
60
30
Ol • • . . , г . , , ^
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
F'igure 5-13d: Standardized global SO^ emissions in the B2 scenario family. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line
without ticks, the globally hamionized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see
Table 4-3).