Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

438 Statistical Table
Illustrative Scenario AlFI-MiniCAM, 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
REF
previously AlG-MiniCAM
Population
Million
428 425 426 433 434 431
423 408 392 374 357 340
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.5 5.1
na na na na na na
6.9 10.0 13.6 17.7 21.6 26.0
na na na na na na
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0
13 10 9 9 9 10
18 12 9 11 12 14
19 15 14 17 20 22
6 8 13 21 29 38
0 0 0 0 0 0
56 44 45 57 70 84
0 0 0 0 0 0
11 8 7 6 5 5
17 19 21 22 21 19
22 26 29 32 28 25
48 58 66 73 73 74
0 0 0 0 0 0
97 110 122 133 127 122
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
18 17 19 24 46 60
20 14 11 13 6 3
26 20 22 33 41 47
3 4 6 10 13 16
0 I 1 2 3 5
68 60 53 45 61 77
5 10 15 22 19 15
50 59. 65 69 61 54
17 18 19 20 20 20
6 8 9 9 10 11
Other Renewables
Total
3 3 3 4 5 7
70 58 63 85 115 138
10 14 18 21 24 27
156 168 178 186 195 205
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5
0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.6
2.1 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.0
0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
2.0 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.1
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 21.7 33.2 49.2 70.0
94.2 120.1 146.4 172.3 197.7 222.6
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
284 294 304 316 320 316
395 410 454 526 608 673
0 0 1 4 8 13
1007 1016 996 945 865 804
691 657 622 587 575 571
2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
303 263 223 183 159 135
719 666 601 525 492 458
18 25 25 19 23 27
762 850 950 1061 1088 1115
575 573 578 590 616 642
2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
1.30 0.91 0.94 1.24 1.76 2.17
0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.12
1.30 0.91 0.97 1.32 1.88 2.29
47 39 49 68 91 109
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4
17.0 11.0 10.3 10.5 13.3 13.4
0 4 8 19 29 31
7 4 5 8 14 20
8 6 8 10 14 18
69 41 49 63 103 136
16 13 17 24 32 45
5 3 3 4 7 8
2.47 2.53 2.54 2.53 2.66 2.79
0.07 0.10 0.09 0.03 -0.14 -0.32
2.55 2.63 2.63 2.56 2.52 2.48
122 123 122 120 120 121
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6
10.7 5.8 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
32 33 33 34 33 31
21 22 23 24 25 24
21 19 15 14 10 11
166 151 151 130 120 89
57 72 100 114 113 110
9 8 7 6 5 5