Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 405
Scenario AIB-MESSAGE
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.5 35.8 52.0 73.9 95,8 118.6 142.3 165.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 8.6 13.8 22.4 38.1 53.9 73.9 95,8 118.6 142.3 165.9
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 11 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 5 7 10 11 14 14 9 3 2 2 2
Liquids 17 27 50 68 98 122 153 180 196 175 144 100
Gas 4 6 11 18 25 43 53 61 66 67 56 40
Electricity 3 6 12 24 47 75 106 150 195 239 274 314
Others 0 1 4 9 17 27 45 63 89 121 159 206
Total 39 55 93 138 203 285 373 463 548 604 634 662
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 7 14 22 35 46 44 41 53 74 76 83
Oil 21 35 53 67 81 100 131 172 194 154 106 67
Gas 8 14 26 49 88 128 150 163 168 148 131 110
Nuclear 0 0 1 4 10 18 28 40 61 83 101 118
Biomass 14 15 22 30 41 53 72 91 124 176 207 213
Other Renewables 2 3 10 18 27 48 90 148 215 298 377 480
Total 49 74 125 190 283 394 514 656 815 932 999 1071
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2,1 2.6 3.3 4.0
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.9 6,7 8.6 10.1 11.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.3 7.9 9.4 10.7
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 38.8 65.4 100.6 147.5 204.2 269.4 343.0 417.9 485,9 545.3
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use »
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1,01 1.76 2.61 3.84 5.09 5.93 6.86 7.63 7.18 6,27 5.53
Other C02 GtC 0,73 0,82 0.60 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0,06 0.03
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1,83 2.36 2.96 4.09 5.28 6.07 6.98 7.73 7.26 6.32 5.56
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 99 119 141 162 171 165 160 1.55 131 100
N20 total " MtN20-N 1.2 1,3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
SOx total MtS 10.5 12,8 18.5 21.1 22.2 21.0 20.6 20.1 20.2 17.7 14.2 10.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 459 526 572 670 785 904 1069 1233 1353 1405
NMVOC Mt 48 55 68 82 90 102 117 124 124 98 78 63
NOx MtN 7 8 11 15 20 25 30 36 38 36 33 30
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestadon were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-A1 marker run.
btC02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.