Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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436 Statistical Table Illustrative Scenario AlFI-MiniCAM, World previously AlG-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 38.1 52.8 80.0 117.1 164.0 226.1 293.3 365.7 441.6 525.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commeicial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 57 73 94 118 140 158 128 108 99 89 79 121 126 141 165 182 229 306 366 423 476 455 435 52 63 81 105 126 141 150 182 212 242 232 223 35 54 86 133 207 301 413 525 630 728 782 837 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 253 300 381 497 634 810 1027 1201 1373 1546 1559 L572 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 88 115 150 193 299 393 475 448 432 429 518 607 131 136 150 173 165 202 283 353 416 471 359 248 70 85 129 203 268 333 398 494 '573 634 606 578 24 26 35 51 79 108 137 155 177 201 217 233 0 6 12 18 28 40 52 73 85 89 106 123 Other Renewables Total 24 24 27 32 42 60 86 128 169 208 246 284 336 392 503 669 882 1135 1431 1650 1850 2032 2052 2073 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 1.2 2.6 4.2 7.0 10.4 14.6 19.1 23.6 27.9 32.9 37.9 0.1 1.5 2.9 4.5 6.2 8.1 10.4 13.8 17.7 22.0 25.8 29.6 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.6 6.1 9.2 12.7 17.4 22.8 28.7 34.8 40.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 171.0 283.3 427.9 608.7 828.0 1075.9 1340.8 1620.6 1906.1 2189.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 1472 1466 1474 1495 1481 1439 1369 1208 1053 903 786 669 Grasslands 3209 3348 3602 3970 4367 4681 4911 4730 4478 4155 3918 3682 Energy Biomass 0 4 9 16 30 47 68 115 ¡30 ¡16 ¡62 208 Forest 4173 4214 4140 3951 3625 3362 3162 3471 3838 4265 4432 4598 Others 4310 4132 3940 3733 3662 3636 3655 3641 3664 3725 3867 4008 Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 ¡3¡64 ¡3¡64 13¡64 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.65 11.19 14.61 18.66 23.10 25.14 27.¡2 29.04 29.64 30.32 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.55 1.57 1.31 0.80 0.55 0.¡6 -0.36 -¡.22 -2.08 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.73 12.73 16.19 19.97 23.90 25.69 27.28 28.68 28.42 28.24 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 359 416 489 567 630 655 677 695 715 735 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.3 10.9 12.8 14.5 15.0 ¡5.4 ¡5.7 16.1 16.6 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 80.8 86.9 96.1 94.0 80.5 56.3 42.6 39.4 39.8 40.1 CFC/tlFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 И4 119 115 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 ИЗ 88 84 95 CO MtCO 879 877 1020 1204 1436 1726 2159 2270 2483 2776 2685 2570 NMVOC Mt 139 141 166 192 214 256 322 361 405 449 435 420 NOx MtN 31 32 40 50 63 77 95 102 109 115 111 110
Statistical Table 437 Illustrative Scenario AlFI-MiniCAM, OECD90 previously AlG-MiniCAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.6 31.5 34.4 44.6 53.5 63.2 74.2 86.4 101.4 117.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na ita na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 10 13 14 14 14 15 17 13 12 12 12 12 Liquids 72 73 75 77 73 70 81 87 94 102 97 93 Gas 27 36 47 59 60 62 62 70 80 91 90 89 Electricity 22 28 37 48 53 70 85 95 105 116 126 137 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 130 151 173 197 199 217 245 265 290 320 325 330 Primary Energy EJ Coal 40 47 48 45 51 70 82 86 93 104 167 231 Oil 76 78 79 79 71 59 70 71 72 74 34 -6 Gas 34 47 69 100 103 112 116 131 146 160 158 157 Nuclear 20 16 14 16 17 18 18 19 22 25 29 33 Biomass 0 2 4 5 5 7 9 11 13 13 17 20 Other Renewables 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 18 23 28 35 42 Total 182 201 225 254 257 279 310 336 368 404 440 476 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.1 7.6 9.2 Oil 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.9 7.3 Gas 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.4 4.0 5.2 6.4 7.8 9.3 10.9 12.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 67.5 107.1 149.4 193.9 242.3 294.5 349.7 408.5 472,7 544.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 408 410 412 414 409 385 358 312 272 238 207 177 Grasslands 796 820 866 935 970 1058 1094 1058 1013 962 918 873 Energy Biomass 0 4 6 8 10 18 24 34 38 36 50 63 Forest 921 931 921 894 869 809 787 864 938 1011 1039 1067 Others 998 959 917 872 865 853 858 856 861 876 909 942 Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.58 3.95 4.03 4.46 5.02 5.34 5.76 6.30 7,14 8.02 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.25 0.24 0.16 0.05 0.02 -0.07 -0.24 -0,35 -0.47 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.72 4.19 4.27 4.63 5.07 5.36 5.69 6.06 6.78 7.55 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 86 101 108 131 149 172 196 223 246 270 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 SOx total MtS 22,7 17.0 13.9 4.7 4.0 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.0 HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 ¡23 124 125 125 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16 SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20 CO MtCO 179 161 181 199 187 211 250 269 274 304 307 319 NMVOC Mt 42 36 39 39 32 33 37 41 45 52 55 60 NOx MtN 13 12 14 16 15 16 16 16 18 20 23 24
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 424 and 425: 416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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Page 446 and 447: 438 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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486 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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492 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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494 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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