Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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360 Open Process Preliminary Al Marker Scenario - REF (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98) 1990 2020 2050 2100 Population in Million 413 430 423 339 GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.1 2.9 12.4 34.2 Final Energy by Fuel in EJ Non-commercial 2 0 0 0 Solids 9.4 5.5 4 1.2 Liquids 18.9 8.9 7 6.2 Gas 19.3 22.9 45.5 49.9 Electricity 8.1 12.7 27.7 55.4 Others Total 57.7 50 84.2 113 Primary Energy by Fuel Coal 18.4 14.1 11 2.7 Oil 22.2 11.6 6.7 2.2 Gas 26.3 32.7 55.3 53.5 Nuclear 1.1 3.9 8.4 4.8 Biomass 2 1.1 7.6 14.8 Other Renewables 1.3 1.7 15 60.7 Total 71.3 65 104 139 Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ Coal 0 0.4 0.8 1.1 Oil 0 0.4 0.7 0.9 Gas 0 0.8 2.1 4.9 Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.2 30.3 62.6 102 Land Use in Million ha Cropland 279 299 287 180 Grasslands 346 454 566 478 Energy Biomass 0 0 31 49 Forest 960 970 973 1114 Others 720 582 447 485 Total 2305 2305 2305 2305 Antliropogenic Emissions (not standardized) CO2 (as C) in GtC 1.2 1 1.1 0.7 Other CO2 (as C) in GtC 0 0 0 -0.1 Total CO2 (as C) in GtC 1.2 1 1.1 0.6 CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4 58.7 79.1 64.5 51.9 N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 SOx total (as S) in MtS 16.5 11.7 2.9 1.6 CO (as CO) in Mt CO 69.8 51.1 54.5 47.4 VOCs in Mt N0^ (as N) in MtN 4 3.1 2.1 1 * at market exchange rate
Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Marker Scenario -ASIA (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98) 1990 2020 2050 2100 Population in Million 2798.2 3851 4220 2882 GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.5 12.3 62.7 207 Final Energy by Fuel in EJ Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total 27.8 15.4 10.8 2 4.6 60.6 14.1 44 48.3 17.3 27.1 151 0 57.3 86.9 70 117 331 0 20.1 112 160 363 655 Primary Energy by Fuel Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Other Renewables Total 25.8 13.1 3 0.1 27.8 1.3 71.3 80.4 48.3 26.9 5.7 20.5 4.2 186 77.5 40.4 108 45.3 45.7 57.6 374 25.1 20.9 184 31.8 89 400 750 Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ Coal Oil Gas 0 0 0 1.5 0.9 0.3 4.1 2.3 2.3 6.6 3.8 10.3 Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.5 87.8 253 546 Land Use in Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total 390 521 0 527 576 2014 437 586 44 411 536 2014 367 621 197 405 424 2014 246 584 257 472 456 2014 Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized) CO2 (as C) in GtC Other CO2 (as C) in GtC Total CO2 (as C) in GtC CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4 N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N SO^ total (as S) in MtS CO (as CO) in Mt CO VOCs in Mt N0„ (as N) in MtN 1.1 0.3 1.5 126.6 2.3 19.2 265.5 4 0.6 4.6 211 2.8 56.2 583 16.4 5.6 0.2 5.9 249 2.7 9.5 847 18.6 5.2 0.1 5.2 127 2 6.3 979 12.3 " at market exchange rate
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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Page 317 and 318: Summary Discussions and Recommendat
Page 329: SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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Page 356 and 357: 348 Data Description Database Descr
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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410 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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