Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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520 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 ALM Population Million (192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion USS 19 27 44 93 17 0 27 6 38 5 1 76 12 8 20 1 30 6 41 6 56 7 73 6 92 0 109 1 124 8 44 0 57 8 73 6 92 0 109 1 124 8 Final Energy Non-commercial Sohds Liquids Gas ElecUicity Others Total EJ 14 11 11 8 6 4 1 4 5 6 7 7 17 22 34 48 64 75 4 6 10 15 22 22 3 5 9 17 29 42 0 1 5 10 18 32 39 49 73 105 145 182 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 ¡ 1 1 77 69 57 44 35 29 25 25 23 22 18 ¡4 54 66 72 74 70 65 46 56 65 69 67 61 210 220 219 209 192 170 Primary Eneigy Coal Od Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 5 4 8 10 12 10 21 30 39 49 59 62 8 12 24 42 73 100 0 0 1 2 4 4 14 14 18 25 33 42 6 3 4 6 7 9 59 50 40 29 18 12 ¡¡6 ¡25 106 96 81 79 4 4 6 6 7 8 44 39 54 65 88 ¡0¡ Other Renewables Total 2 4 7 13 22 42 49 65 96 141 201 259 72 100 121 ¡25 1¡¡ 8¡ 301 321 330 327 3¡3 290 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 00 00 0 1 02 03 04 00 03 06 09 1 4 20 00 0 1 02 05 09 1 6 05 05 06 06 07 07 26 32 37 4 1 44 46 26 38 50 6 1 70 78 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1 4 17 8 37 4 59 6 83 7 1102 139 1 168 0 194 5 2¡70 235 4 250 8 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use •> Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 371 385 385 385 384 384 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 0 0 0 29 66 93 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 383 383 383 383 382 382 1723 1732 1741 ¡750 ¡760 ¡769 12¡ 124 ¡27 124 ¡16 107 1790 1808 1825 ¡843 ¡862 ¡880 1461 1432 ¡403 1379 136¡ ¡342 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total
Statistical Table 521 Scenario Bl-MiniCAM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 37.5 51.0 73.0 100.7 134.1 172.7 211.9 251.8 289.9 330.8 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 45 50 55 60 66 66 61 43 32 25 24 22 Liquids 121 112 109 113 113 123 142 152 162 172 176 181 Gas 52 57 66 82 86 86 81 78 78 79 81 84 Electricity 35 46 63 85 113 147 185 219 247 270 272 273 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 253 264 294 341 378 421 469 493 518 546 553 561 Primary Energy EJ Coal 88 98 107 113 131 136 127 93 68 51 49 47 Oil 131 120 116 119 115 123 144 156 167 177 183 188 Gas 70 76 100 144 162 169 165 160 155 148 149 151 Nuclear 24 22 24 29 41 49 54 51 46 38 40 41 Biomass 0 5 9 13 17 20 23 26 27 24 23 22 Other Renewables 24 24 28 33 44 76 129 185 234 277 257 238 Total 336 345 384 451 509 573 642 672 696 716 701 687 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.1 1.1 2.1 3.2 4.4 5.7 7.1 8.1 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.5 Oil 0.1 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.9 6.1 7.4 8.9 10.6 12.3 14.1 15.9 Gas 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.1 7.8 9.4 11.0 12.5 14.0 15.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 164.2 253.8 352.1 452.4 549.4 641.3 726.4 801.1 865.9 922.6 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 1472 1467 1456 1439 1377 1287 1168 989 833 699 598 496 Grasslands 3209 3349 3590 3933 4240 4443 4544 4268 3976 3668 3522 3375 Energy Biomass 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Forest 4173 4214 4144 3963 3737 3611 3584 4038 4428 4754 4796 4837 Others 4310 4133 3972 3828 3810 3823 3868 3870 3928 4043 4250 4458 Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13165 13166 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.39 8.23 8.99 9.23 9.30 8.58 8.06 7.73 7.83 7.92 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.00 1.30 1.14 0.72 0.15 0.36 0.02 -0.86 -1.75 -2.64 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.38 9.53 10.13 9.94 9.45 8.94 8.08 6.87 6.07 5.28 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 351 399 439 483 512 506 505 510 535 561 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.5 U.l 13.0 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.5 20.2 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 69.0 69.0 65.6 57.1 43.7 30.4 21.6 17.3 16.9 16.6 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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468 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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570 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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