Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Background and Overview
characterize both the dynamics of emissions pattems and their
ranges.
Chapter 6 summarizes the main characteristics of the SRES
scenarios and findings and compares the new scenarios with
the IS92 set as well as with other scenarios from the literature.
The chapter addresses possible implications of the new
scenarios for future assessments of climate change and
concludes with recommendations from the writing team for
user communities.
Finally, 11 appendices conclude the report. They include for
example the SRES Terms of Reference, a technical appendix
that describes the six modeling approaches used to formulate
the 40 scenarios, the scenario database and tables with further
statistics that describe the new scenarios.
References:
Alcamo, J., A. Bouwman, J. Edmond.s, A. Griibler, T. Morita, and A.
Sugandhy, 1995: An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. In
Climate Cliange 1994. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and An
Evaluation of the I P C C IS92 Emission Scenarios. J.T. Houghton, L.G.
Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris
and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 233-
304.
Alcamo, J., R. Leemans, and E. Kreileman (eds.) 1998: Global Change
Scenarios of the 2P' Century. Results from the I M A G E 2.1 model. Elsevier
Science, London.
Alcamo, J., and R. Swart, 1998: Future trends of land-use emissions of major
greenhouse gases. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, 3(2-4), 343-381.
Anderson, D., 1998; On the effects of social and economic policies on future
carbon emissions. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, 3(2-4), 419-453.
Davis, G.R., 1999; Foreseeing a refracted future. Scenario & Strategy
Planning, t(l), 13-15.
De Jong, A., and G. Zalm, 1991; Scanning the future: A long-term scenario
study of the world economy 1990-2015. In Long-term
World Economy. OECD, Paris, pp. 27-74.
De Vries, H.J.M., J.G.J. Olivier, R.A.
Prospects of the
van den Wijngaart, G.J.J. Kreileman, and
A.M.C. Toet, 1994: Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial
production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate
scenarios. Water, Air Soil Pollution, 76, 79-131.
De Vries, В., M. Janssen, and A. Beusen, 1999: Perspectives on global energy
futures - simulations with the TIME model. Energy Policy, 27, 477-494.
De Vries, В., J. Bollen, L. Bouwman, M. den Elzen, M. Janssen, and E.
Kreileman, 2000; Greenhouse gas emissions in an equity-, environmentand
service-oriented world: An IMAGE-based scenario for the next
century. Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 63(2-3). (In press).
Dowlatabadi, H., and M. Kandlikar, 1995; Key Uncertainties in Climate
Change Policy: Results from ICAM-2. Proceedings of tlie б'*" Global
Warming Conference, San Francisco, CA.
Eatwell, J., M. Murray, and P. Newman (eds.), 1998; The New Palgrave. A
Dictionary of Economics, 3.
Edmonds, J.. M. Wise, and C. MacCracken, 1994; Advanced energy
echnologies and climate change. An Analysis Using the Global Change
Assessment Model (GCAM). PNL-9798, UC-402, Pacific
Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.
Northwest
Edmonds, J., M. Wise, H. Pitciier, R. Richels, T. Wigley, and C. MacCracken,
1996a; An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated
introduction of advanced energy technologies: An application of MiniCAM
1.0. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1(4), 311-
339.
Edmonds, J., M. Wise, R. Sands, R. Brown, and H. Kheshgi, 1996b;
Agriculture, land-use, and commercial biomass energy. A Preliminary
integrated analysis of the potential role of Biomass Energy for Reducing
Future Greenhouse Related Emissions. PNNL-11155, Pacific Northwest
National Laboratories, Washington, DC.
Fenhann, J., 2000: Industrial non-energy, non-COj greenhouse gas emissions.
Technological Foreca.ning & Social Change, 63(2-3). (In press).
Funtowicz, S.O., and J.R. Ravetz, 1990; Uncertainty and Quality in Science
for Policy. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands.
Gaffin, S.R., 1998: World population projections for greenhouse gas emissions
scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4),
133-170.
Gregory, K., 1998: Factors affecting future emissions of methane from nonland-use
sources. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
3(2-4), 321-341.
Gregory, K., and H.-H. Rogner, 1998: Energy resources and conversion
technologies for the 2P' century. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, 3(2-4), 171-229.
Griibler, A., 1998: A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4), 383-418.
Houghton, J. T., G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums (eds.), 1990; Climate
Cliange: The I P C C Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press,
Ciunbridge, 365 pp.
Houghton, J.T, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg,
and K. Maskell (eds.), 1996; Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate
Change. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Second Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
Jefferson, M., 1983; Economic uncertainty and business decision-making. In
Beyond Positive Economics? J. Wiseman (ed.), Macmillan Press, London,
pp. 122-159.
Jiang, K., T. Masui, T. Morita, and Y. Matsuoka, 2000; Long-term GHG
emission scenarios of Asia-Pacific and the world. Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 63(2-3). (In press).
Jung, T.-Y, E.L. La Rovere, H. Gaj, PR. Shukla, and D. Zhou, 2000;
Structural changes in developing countries and their implication to energyrelated
CO2 emissions. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 63(2-
3). (In press).
Kram, T., К. Riahi, R.A. Roehri, S. van Rooijen, T. Morita, and B. de Vries,
2000: Global and regional greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 63(2-3). (In press).
Lashof, D., and Tirpak, D.A., 1990; Policy Options for Stabilizing Global
Climate. 2IP-2003. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
Leggett, J., W.J. Pepper, and R.J. Swart, 1992; Emissions Scenarios for IPCC:
An Update. In; Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to the
IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander and S.K.
Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 69-95.
Marland, G., R.J. Andres, and T.A. Boden, 1994; Global, regional, and
national CO, emissions, pp.505-584. In Trends '93: A Compendium of
Data on Global Change. ORNL/CDIAC-65. TA. Boden, D.R Kaiser, R.J.
Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds).,Carbon Dioxide Infonnation Analysis
Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, pp. 505-584.
Messner, S., and M. Strubegger, 1995; User's Guide for MESSAGE III. WP-
95-69, Intemational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria, 155 pp.
Michaelis, L., 1998; Economic and technological development in climate
scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4),
231-261.
Morgan, M.G., and M. Henrion, 1990: Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with
Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
Mori, S., and M. Takahashi, 1999; An integrated assessment model for the
evaluation of new energy technologies and food productivity. International
Journal of Global Energy Issues, 11(1-4), 1-18.
Mori, S., 2000; The development of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using
an extension of the MARIA model for the assessment of resource and
energy technologies. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 63(2-3).
(In press).
75