Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

498
Statistical
Table
Scenario Bl-AIM
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
413
419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 10.2 12.9 15.7 19.1
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1
19 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2
19 13 16 17 18 21 26 23 21 17 13 10
8 9 9 9 9 12 17 21 25 27 27 27
58 42 37 36 35 42 51 51 52 50 45 40
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
18 13 13 12 11 12 13 11 9 7 6 5
22 12 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1
26 22 25 26 25 29 33 30 26 22 17
13
1 I 1 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 2
2 4 0 3 8 12 17 19 22 24 24 25
Other Renewables
Total
1 1 1 2 2 4 8 13 20 25 26 28
71 54 50 51 53 63 79 78 82 82 76 73
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 21.5 29.6 35.8 40.9 45.3 48.6 51.0 51.3 50.1 49.0
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
0 0 0 9 20 27 37 38 39 38 35 33
966 951 934 933 934 953 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
701 696 711 702 688 658 630 617 604 592 580 568
2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GlC 1.30 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.65 0.66 0.66
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.05 -0.10 -0.10 -0.19 -0.26
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.93 0.68 0.56 0,47 0.40
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 48 50 49 46 43
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0,6 0.6
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.6 9.2 6.9 4.3 2.7
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9
CO MtCO 69 41 36 34 33 33 33
NMVOC Mt 16 13 12 11 10 9 9
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 2 2 2
0.48
-0.20
0.28
34
0.6
2.2
27
10
9
32
7
2
0.35
-0.15
0.20
26
0.6
1.9
27
9
7
32
6
1
-0.11
-0.02
-0.14
20
0.5
1.7
27
8
6
31
4
1
-0.05
-0.07
-0.12
16
0.5
1.7
27
8
4
30
3
1
0.02
-0.11
-0.10
12
0.5
1.6
26
29
1
1