Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Open Process 375
Preliminary B2 Marker Scenario - REF (Open process version, date of submission: 1112198)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 413 418 406 379
GNP/GDP (тех) in Trillion US$90 ^ 1.1 1.8 6.6 14.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) in Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 3.3 7.2 16.2
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Solids 9.3 2.2 O.I 0.0
Liquids 15.4 17.2 19.2 21.6
Gas 13.5 15.4 19.2 9.5
Electricity 5.7 6.8 17.9 32.1
Other (e.g. H,) 6.5 7.2 11.5 15.4
Total 50.4 48.8 67.9 78.6
Primary Energy by Fuel
Coal 18.6 7.3 12.4 32.4
Oil 20.4 18.9 19.6 0.1
Gas 26.7 31.4 54.8 44.8
Nuclear 1.0 0.7 2.4 9.3
Biomass 1.8 0.8 4.8 36.2
Other Renewables 1.1 2.6 8.2 21.2
Synfuel Trade 0 0 -5 -19.4
Total 69.6 61.7 97.2 124.6
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.5
Oil 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.6
Gas 0.0 0.8 2.0 5.2
Cumulative CO, Emissions in GtC 0.0 34.6 70.7 144.4
Land Use in Million ha
Forests 960.0 940.3 967.2 1004.4
Grasslands 345.7 453.4 531.4 561.3
Cropland 279.1 300.2 283.4 238.1
Energy Biomass 0.0 0.0 43.4 35.0
Other 719.9 610.7 479.3 465.9
Total 2304.7 2304.7 2304.7 2304.7
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)''
CO2 (as C)'' in GtC 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.4
Other CO2 (as C)"^ in GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total CO2 (as C) in GtC 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.4
СЩ total (as CH^) in Mt CH^ 46.5 48.3 59.8 58.2
N,0 total (as N) in Mt N2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
SO^ total (as S) in MtS 16.8 6.1 4.5 3.6
CO (as CO) in Mt CO 82.0 86.9 1U.3 114.8
VOCs in Mt 20.2 23.3 38.4 32.2
N0^ (as N) in MtN 4.1 3.8 5.5 3.9
" тех = market exchange rate; ppp= purchasing power parity
^ CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
' Land-use data taken from AIM B2 emulation run.
Other non-energy emissions categories were calculated based on AIM B2 land-use change estimates and/or AIM B2 non-energy (
' COj emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 emulation run)
Note: Subtotals may not add due to independent rounding.