Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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274 Emission Scenarios 180 • B>IM\GE DÎMMCVM 2010 2030 2050 2070 2040 Figure 5-12: Standardized global SO2 emissions for SRES scénarios, classified into four scenario families (each denoted by a different color code - Al, red; A2, brown; Bl, green; В2, blue). Marker scenarios are shown with thick lines without ticks, globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see Table 4-3). Black lines show percentiles, means, and medians for SRES scenarios. For numbers on the two additional illustrative scenarios AlFI and AIT see Appendix VII. Russia), uncertainties in sulfur contents of fuels (especially coal) in many regions, and the use of different base years for development of sulfur inventories. For instance, inventories and scenario studies for China and Centrally Planned Asia give a range of sulfur emissions that differ by more than a factor of two (8.4 to 18 MtS) for the year 1990 (Grübler, 1998). Base-year differences in the available data sources are especially important because regional sulfur emissions trends have changed drastically in the past decade. Although they decreased strongly in Europe and North America as a result of sulfur control policies, they increased rapidly in Asia with growing energy demand and coal use. For instance, between 1980 and 1995 sulfur emissions declined by 59% in Western Europe and Russia (albeit for entirely different reasons - environmental policy limiting sulfur emissions in Westem Europe versus a massive economic depression in Russia), by 37% in Eastern Europe, and by 36% in North America (ECE, 1997). Conversely, emissions in China rose rapidly, from an estimated 6.6 MtS in 1985 to 9.1 MtS in 1994, or by 38% (Sinton, 1996; Dadi et al., 1998). These diverging emission trends and their rapid changes also require a continuous updating of available gridded sulfur emission inventories (e.g., Dignon and Hameed, 1989; Spiro et al., 1992; Benkovitz et al., 1996; Olivier et al., 1996) that in, some instances, still rely on outdated 1980 emissions data. at the regional level. The range is within the range of values given by global inventories. Model differences at the regional level are even larger, which reflects the greater uncertainty of emission inventories at this level, particularly outside the OECD countries. To standardize sulfur emissions, the number of SRES reporting regions was increased to six regions, by splitting Latin America from the ALM region and Centrally Planned Asia and China from ASIA. Important differences in economic development status and resource endowments lead to different patterns of sulfur emissions across all SRES scenarios. Regional emissions were standardized (see Box 5-1) and then aggregated to the global level. Global standardized base-year emissions for 1990 for the SRES scenarios are equal to 70.9 MtS, in line with the literature range of global emission inventories given above. The regional sulfur emission profiles were also used to generate spatially gridded emission patterns (see Section 5.6.2 below). Concerning future emissions of sulfur, the SRES scenarios reflect recent literature and trends of sulfur control scenarios, as well as the conclusions from the 1994 evaluation of the IS92 scenarios (Alcamo et al., 1995). Despite considerable scenario variability, all scenarios portray similar emission dynamics - at various future dates (between 2020-2030 and 2070, depending Global base-year (1990) sulfur emission values from the SRES models range from 63 to 77 MtS, with the addition of 3 MtS from international shipping.^ This difference reflects the existing uncertainty in sulfur emission estimates, particularly ^ FoUowing UN energy statistics and IPCC inventory practices, intemational bunker fuels are included in global totals, but not in national/regional subtotals (and thek aggregates to global totals). Hence, bunker fuels are reported separately here.
Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —• AlB ASF * Л1В IMAUE 1 -^
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
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Page 295 and 296: Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Page 301 and 302: 6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Page 329: SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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