Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
533
Scenario BlHigh-MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
REF
Population
Million
413 419 427 433 435 433
423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1 0.8 1.0 2.0 4.9 7.9
2.6 2.2 2.5 3.6 5.7 7,9
9.9 11.9 13.8 15.6 17.4 19.0
9.9 11.9 13.8 15.6 17.4 19.0
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0
9 5 3 2 1 0
15 10 11 14 17 17
14 10 11 11 11 10
6 5 6 7 10 12
7 6 6 7 9 9
50 36 37 42 48 48
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
15 14 14 12 11 10
8 5 4 4 3 2
14 15 16 17 18 18
9 10 11 11 10 8
47 45 45 43 41 38
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
19 13 9 6 4 3
20 14 13 16 18 16
27 20 23 28 35 40
1 1 1 0 0 0
2 1 1 1 2 3
3 3 4 5 5 4
13 11 10 8 8 7
44 49 50 46 37 27
0 0 1 1 2 2
3 3 5 8 13 18
Other Renewables
Total
1 1 2 3 4 5
70 50 48 55 64 68
6 8 9 11 12 13
70 74 78 77 76 71
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Od
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0,5
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0,8
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1,3
0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1,4 1.5
1.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 21.3 29.4 37.4 45,3
52.5 59.7 67.7 75.8 83.0 88.7
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
268 266 266 266 265 265
341 362 364 366 368 370
0 0 0 9 20 29
966 951 934 933 934 954
701 696 711 702 688 659
2276 2276 2276 2276 •2276 2276
264 264 263 263 263 262
372 374 376 378 380 382
37 38 39 38 35 33
973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
630 617 604 592 580 568
2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
1.30 0.91 0.84 0.87 0.96 0.95
0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20
1.30 0.91 0.88 0.76 0.84 0.75
47 39 39 41 43 45
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
17.0 11.0 7.1 4.6 3.0 1.7
0 4 9 15 20 24
7 4 6 6 7 8
8 6 4 7 7 8
69 41 44 49 58 63
16 13 15 18 21 23
5 3 3 4 4 4
0.96 0.98 1.01 0,93 0.79 0.62
-0.28 -0.23 -0.17 -0,15 -0.14 -0.14
0.69 0.76 0.84 0.78 0.65 0.48
46 41 38 36 32 27
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
2.0 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.4 2.8
26 27 27 27 27 26
9 10 9 8 8 8
9 9 7 6 4 4
60 53 49 40 35 33
25 27 30 30 23 15
4 3 2 2 1 1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Bl land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B1 emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.