Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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390 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-ASF ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1218 1519 1869 2218 2500 2851 2980 3023 3044 3013 2795 2727 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 2.6 4.3 7.4 13.3 22.3 42.5 52,8 71.8 83.8 126.6 171.2 189.4 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial Solids 1 2 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 15 15 14 Liquids 23 40 63 106 134 161 189 191 193 192 186 180 Gas 5 9 18 37 56 76 95 95 94 87 71 55 Electricity 5 8 14 24 46 68 90 130 170 202 225 249 Others Total 34 58 98 172 244 316 388 430 473 495 497 499 Primary Energy EJ Coal 5 9 15 26 77 128 179 198 217 230 238 246 Oil 26 45 72 118 101 85 68 42 15 2 1 1 Gas 9 14 25 48 78 107 136 132 ' 128 106 65 24 Nuclear 0 0 1 2 11 19 28 38 48 61 75 90 Biomass 0 0 1 8 24 40 56 68 81 91 100 110 Other Renewables 5 5 7 8 13 17 22 49 77 96 108 120 Total 44 74 121 211 304 396 489 528 566 586 588 590 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1,9 3,5 5.4 7.5 9.7 12.1 14.5 Oil 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.0 3.9 4,7 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2,2 3,5 4.8 6.1 7.3 8.1 8.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 40.1 73.3 120.4 181.1 254,7 333.0 407.9 478.7 543.9 602.8 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.86 3.15 4.63 5,99 7.36 7.21 7.07 6.68 6.06 5.44 Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.78 0.85 0.80 0.72 0.65 0.45 0.25 0.15 0.14 0.14 Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.63 4.00 5.42 6,71 8.00 7.66 7.32 6.83 6.21 5.58 CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 109 135 155 168 182 173 164 155 145 135 N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2,3 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2,7 SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 16.1 27.1 31.5 29,0 26.4 24.9 23.3 22.5 22.4 22.3 HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196 PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30 SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26 CO MtCO 396 404 483 572 738 815 892 898 904 900 886 872 NMVOC Mt 48 55 64 82 107 129 151 183 216 249 283 317 NOx MtN 7 8 12 19 27 31 36 36 35 35 34 33
Statistical Table 391 Scenario AlB-IMAGE World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5280 6122 6892 7618 8196 8547 8708 8671 8484 8142 7663 7047 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1990 US$/cap > 21.0 26.7 37.9 55.9 81.2 116.2 163.5 219.4 283.2 365,2 446,4 518,8 971.0 4357.0 5503.0 7342.0 9907.0 13598.0 18772.0 25300.0 33383.0 44853,0 58248.0 73621.0 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 54 59 65 63 59 50 40 38 35 32 29 25 43 44 45 52 59 66 69 65 59 52 47 40 106 119 146 177 198 213 209 204 200 190 175 161 46 55 73 84 90 100 119 134 145 154 157 156 39 55 88 147 220 307 373 410 427 428 408 376 2 4 11 29 50 68 85 93 93 92 91 85 289 336 429 551 677 804 895 944 959 950 907 843 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Non-Fossil Electric Biomass EJ 105 111 129 170 245 298 301 271 237 198 163 129 129 143 187 242 285 300 348 352 340 320 280 237 62 73 117 163 188 222 259 278 283 278 264 244 8 14 23 39 61 91 128 162 193 218 230 230 3 4 !2 35 69 102 129 141 138 133 128 116 Other Renewables Total 61 69 77 76 74 68 59 58 56 54 51 48 368 416 544 725 923 1080 1224 1262 1246 1201 1116 1002 Coal Oil Gas iZJb 0.0 1.1 2.3 3,7 5.8 8.5 11.6 14.5 17.0 19.2 21.0 22.4 0.0 1.3 3.0 5.1 7.8 10.7 14.0 17.5 21.0 24.3 27.3 29.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 3,0 4.8 6.8 9.2 11.9 14.7 17.5 20.3 22.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 168.6 275.5 411.1 574.2 755.8 941.6 1123.9 1298.8 1458.9 1601.2 Carbon Sequestration GtC 2.1 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.3 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.2 5,2 5,2 4.6 Land Use Cropland
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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Page 356 and 357: 348 Data Description Database Descr
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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440 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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