Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Emission Scenarios 259
700
600
Bl Family
и
-Bl
vus b AGE
-Bl MINICAM
s
•3
о
ô
100
О
-BIT
MESSAGE
-—-Bl HIGH
MESSAGE
Bl HJGH
MCsTCAM
0 I
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Figure 5-6c: Standardized global CH4 emissions in the Bl family scénarios. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line
without ticks, the globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see
Table 4-3).
•В2
MESSAGE
В2 \IM
- Hi - В2 \SF
0 В2 IMAGE
- В2 MIMCAM
• - Q
в:нюн
MINICAM
о I . , , . . ^ . , , ^
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Figure 5-6d: Standardized global CH^ emissions in the B2 family scenarios. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line
without ticks, the globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see
Table 4-3).
5.4.1.5. Inter-Family Comparison
Global CH4 emissions in all the four markers increase at about
the same rate up to 2020 (Figure 5-5). After the early and rapid
increase in agricultural productivity and a shift away from
fossil fuels, emissions in the Bl marker (Bl-IMAGE) level off
and subsequently decline. Emissions in the other three markers
continue to increase. Emissions in the AlB marker (AlB-AIM)
grow to 2030 because of an increasing and much more affluent
population in developing regions. The emissions subsequently
decline until 2100 as the population growth slows and
eventually reverses. Increases in efficiency and productivity,
through rapid technological change, offset increases in
consumption (AI global GDP is the largest among the SRES
storylines), so that by 2100 global emissions per person are
lower than in 1990 even though average incomes grow very