Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-АШ ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2726 GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 3.0 5.4 9.6 16.7 26.0 40.4 52.5 68.2 85.1 101.7 121.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 14 17 9 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 Liquids 17 24 31 41 55 64 75 79 84 88 89 90 Gas 4 10 19 29 46 57 71 70 69 65 57 50 Electricity Others 4 7 11 16 23 33 48 61 77 89 95 102 Total 40 60 71 97 135 163 198 215 235 245 244 244 Primary Energy EJ Coal 5 7 11 16 24 31 41 36 32 28 24 21 Oil 27 33 44 47 51 51 52 52 52 52 53 54 Gas 9 22 39 59 89 106 126 123 121 .' 112 98 86 Nuclear 0 0 1 1 2 5 10 9 9 9 8 8 Biomass 14 18 19 31 45 50 56 63 72 77 79 81 Other Renewables 2 2 3 5 7 13 23 37 61 82 93 105 Total 57 83 115 159 219 257 308 322 346 360 356 355 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 1.7 Oil 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.7 6.7 Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 6.2 7.4 8.4 12.5 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.6 60.5 86.0 114.5 148.1 183.7 217.8 249.9 278.9 304.4 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382 Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 89 121 124 127 124 115 107 Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1861 1880 Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1526 1461 1432 1403 1379 1360 1342 Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC McC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 0.72 1.01 1.48 2.02 2.73 3.20 3.75 3.56 3.39 3.14 2.84 2.56 0.73 0.82 0.65 0.44 -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.08 -0.05 -0.07 -0.12 -0.17 1.45 1.83 2.13 2.46 2.63 3.08 3.63 3.48 3.34 3.08 2.72 2.39 77 85 97 112 128 135 143 141 138 124 101 84 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1,2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 10.5 12.8 12.2 12.6 17.3 15.0 13.1 10.3 8.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14 396 404 425 398 405 436 470 489 508 528 548 569 48 55 60 72 80 79 79 73 67 59 50 42 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11
Statistical Table 501 Scenario Bl-ASF World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5264 6117 6827 7537 8039 8526 8704 8527 8444 8022 7282 7056 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion USS 20.6 27.6 38.0 53.5 73.8 114.9 134.3 (67.2 186.9 252.2 314.9 339.3 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion ( 1990 pnces) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ Solids 55 66 80 89 76 62 49 42 35 30 28 25 Liquids 121 170 228 304 308 311 314 280 247 221 203 186 Gas 50 58 82 124 149 174 198 185 171 157 143 129 Electricity 42 55 77 104 149 195 241 283 325 343 339 334 Others Total 269 350 467 621 682 742 802 790 778 752 712 673 Primary Energy EJ Coal 97 119 149 191 262 332 403 354 305 259 215 172 Oil 1.39 198 272 354 289 225 160 103 46 14 8 2 Gas 74 83 118 179 231 283 335 303 272 242 213 184 Nuclear 7 10 8 7 9 11 13 11 10 9 S 8 Biomass 0 0 0 14 43 73 102 125 148 167 183 198 Other Renewables 10 14 23 30 46 61 77 135 192 223 226 229 Total 326 424 570 774 879 984 1090 1031 973 914 853 791 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.5 9.5 13.2 16.9 20.2 23.0 25.3 27.2 Oil 0.0 1.8 4.2 7.3 10.5 13.0 14.9 16.1 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 Gas 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.4 8.0 11.1 14.3 17.1 19.7 21.9 23.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 176.1 302.2 458.8 631.1 810.7 978.8 1116.5 1227.0 1317.0 1389.7 Carbon Sequestration GtC -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.7 -2.9 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.4 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 9.65 13.22 15.72 16.61 17.50 14.71 11.93 9.68 7.98 6.27 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.24 1.13 0.98 0.84 0.58 0.32 0.18 0.16 0.14 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.76 14.46 16.85 17.59 18.33 15.29 12.24 9.86 8.13 6.41 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 373 430 479 513 546 513 481 447 412 377 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.5 11.2 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.3 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 83.6 112.3 104.7 76.4 48.1 38.1 28.1 23.4 24.0 24.6 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43 CO MtCO 879 877 1039 1162 1338 1316 1293 1199 1105 1029 971 913 NMVOC Mt 139 141 162 193 218 228 237 255 272 295 322 349 NOx MtN 31 32 44 59 70 71 72 62 52 45 40 35
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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444 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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Page 458 and 459: 450 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 464 and 465: 456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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550 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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