Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-MiniCAM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million .5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 38.1 52.8 80.2 117.3 164.4 226.8 294.5 367.3 445.1 530.7 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solids 45 57 71 86 98 103 99 73 54 45 46 47 Liquids 121 126 134 145 144 161 197 238 279 318 364 411 Gas 52 63 72 80 81 81 79 90 101 111 73 36 Electricity 35 53 82 123 199 289 392 511 628 745 856 968 Others 0 0 20 59 99 156 231 272 308 341 280 220 Total 253 300 379 493 622 790 998 1184 1371 1559 1620 1682 Primary Energy EJ Coal 88 116 145 174 224 255 265 216 179 156 190 225 Oil 131 136 144 155 141 154 194 244 291 333 387 440 Gas 70 85 137 226 336 437 527 611 678 728 476 224 Nuclear 24 25 33 45 60 73 89 100 112 125 218 311 Biomass 0 5 14 26 55 87 124 148 159 156 187 219 Other Renewables 24 25 28 35 48 97 181 311 448 589 687 785 Total 336 392 500 661 865 1104 1380 1630 1866 2087 2145 2204 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.1 1.2 2.5 4.0 6.2 8.6 II.l 13.4 15.4 17.1 18.9 20.8 Oil 0.1 1.5 2.9 4.4 5.8 7.4 9.0 11.4 14.0 17.1 20.8 24.6 Gas 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.9 10.8 15.4 21.4 27.8 34.7 40.0 45.2 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 170.3 280.0 417.3 579.7 762.4 956.6 1156.0 1362.1 1559.1 1731.1 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 1472 1467 1472 1489 1472 1429 1361 1210 1054 891 769 646 Grasslands 3209 3349 3604 3974 4359 4663 4885 4731 4480 4134 3872 3609 Energy Biomass 0 ( 13 35 103 178 261 296 294 255 313 372 Forest 4173 4215 4141 3952 3606 3309 3060 3318 3704 4217 4435 4654 Others 4310 4133 3935 3715 3625 3585 3596 3608 3632 3667 3775 3884 Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.51 10.74 13.45 15.88 18.18 19.11 20.07 21.05 19.45 17.93 Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.10 1.59 1.68 1.48 1.01 0.53 0.17 -0.07 -1.02 -1.97 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.60 12.33 15.13 17.35 19.19 19.64 20.24 20.98 18.43 15.96 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 356 406 467 528 573 592 604 608 572 535 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.6 12.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 78.8 80.7 77.3 66.1 47.1 32.2 23.9 22.3 25.7 29.2 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95 CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN
Statistical Table 407 Scenario AlB-MiniCAM OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.6 31.5 34.4 44.7 53.6 63.3 74.4 86.7 102.1 118.7 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 13 12 9 9 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 72 73 70 61 51 30 28 30 32 35 43 51 27 36 41 40 38 30 25 27 30 33 24 14 22 28 33 36 37 40 42 51 63 76 102 128 0 0 16 47 59 98 129 140 151 164 141 117 130 151 172 195 195 205 229 252 279 311 313 315 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 40 47 45 35 37 42 45 43 38 30 42 54 76 78 74 64 52 26 22 22 26 35 44 53 34 47 73 113 120 141 154 169 184 201 143 84 20 16 13 12 11 9 8 9 10 12 26 39 0 2 5 10 13 24 33 36 37 37 51 66 Other Renewables Total 12 11 11 11 11 15 21 32 46 62 82 103 182 201 222 245 245 258 283 310 342 376 388 400 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.6 3,0 3,4 3,8 4.2 4.6 0.1 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.6 4.6 6.0 7,7 9,5 11.4 12.9 14.4 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 67.1 104.7 143.5 181.7 220.0 259.2 299.4 340.7 380.2 415,2 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland 408 411 410 408 402 378 352 309 268 229 196 163 Grasslands 796 821 866 931 963 1044 1076 1048 1007 953 898 843 Energy Biomass 0 1 9 24 34 67 92 95 93 86 120 154 Forest 921 931 922 894 867 794 760 825 904 996 1028 1059 Others 998 959 916 866 857 840 843 846 851 859 882 904 Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 Antlu-opogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 2,83 3.20 3.48 3.64 3.58 3.57 3.77 3.95 4.14 4.34 4.00 3.67 0,00 0.00 0.14 0.27 0.28 0.22 0.11 0.02 -0.07 -0.16 -0.28 -0.40 2.83 3.20 3.62 3.90 3.86 3.79 3.87 3.97 4.07 4.18 3.72 3.28 73 74 83 93 98 117 133 150 160 161 167 173 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 22.7 17.0 13.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.5 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Page 388 and 389: 380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
Page 390 and 391: 3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 394 and 395: 386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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