Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
403
Scenario AIB-MESSAGE
REF
2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
413 419 427 433 435
433
423 409 392 374 357 339
ONP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
1.1 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.3
2.6 2.2 3.1 4.3 6.0
12.4 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.3 34.2
12.4 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.3 34.2
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0
9 5 4 3 2
15 10 10 10 11
14 U 15 17 20
6 6 7 10 14
7 6 7 10 12
50 38 42 50 59
0
1
10
26
20
15
72
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
11 10 10 11 15 21
29 33 32 25 16 7
27 32 38 45 51 56
17 17 19 23 26 28
85 92 99 103 108 112
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
19 15 12 14 17
20 15 13 12 12
27 22 30 32 38
1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 0
3
30
12
42
2
5
32
12
50
3
8
26
13
67
4
10
13
13
81
5
14
9
79
6
21
17
7
63
7
32
19
5
53
8
47
Other Renewables
Total
1 1 2 4 6
70 54 58 64 77
9
99
16 19 26 37 49 55
121 138 151 160 173 187
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2,1
0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1,4
1.9 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.7 5,3
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
1.3 12.3 22.3 32.7 43.2
56,0 70.8 86.7 102.9 117.8 131.6 144.6
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
268 266 265 265 265
341 361 364 366 367
0 0 0 3 6
966 950 918 904 894
701 698 728 738 745
2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
264
368
11
899
733
2276
263
370
16
905
722
2276
262
371
19
909
715
2276
262
371
22
912
709
2276
261
372
23
916
703
2276
260
373
21
922
700
2276
260
374
20
927
696
2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 0.96 1.14
Other C02