Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 535
Scenario BlHigli-MESSAGE
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.3 9.3 18.3 30.5 45.7 62.7 77.5 91.1 102.9 112.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.4 12.8 21.2 33.3 47.9 63.4 77.5 91.1 102.9 112.7
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1
Liquids 17 22 28 36 49 57 63 66 57 49 43 39
Gas 4 6 9 13 17 18 22 24 27 26 23 19
Electricity 3 5 7 13 21 33 46 63 76 87 94 96
Others 0 1 4 8 15 27 40 55 70 85 94 96
Total 39 48 61 82 111 143 178 211 231 248 254 251
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 10 13 17 21 26
Oil 21 30 35 41 49 52 52 44 31 20 13 8
Gas 8 12 20 34 60 87 100 114 96 86 68 67
Nuclear 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 5 7 10 13 16
Biomass 14 13 13 16 19 25 33 50 77 94 108 131
Other Renewables 2 4 7 II 17 35 67 103 143 174 194 179
Total 49 63 80 108 152 206 262 326 368 400 417 426
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 05 0.6 0.8 1.0
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 33 3.6 3.8 3.9
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 36.3 55.4 74.7 96.0 120.9 147.8 173.5 195.6 214.4 231.3
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 93 12) 124 127 124 116 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862 1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.25 1.56 2.10 2.58 2.85 2.99 2.55 2.26 1.96 1.96
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.87 1.95 1.90 2.36 2.60 2.77 2.36 2.06 1.71 1.67
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 97 109 125 138 151 153 153 143 122 104
N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.6 10.4 8.5 7.2 5.9 4.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 403 414 429 453 489 540 638 738 806 922
NMVOC Mt 48 55 59 64 67 67 68 60 53 45 39 36
NOx MtN 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11
Emissions (
a: Land-use taken from AIM-B1 emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d: Non-energy telated CH4 emissions were taken fiom AIM-Bl emulation run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.