Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
483
Scenario A2-MESSAGE
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
418 421 438 454 473 507 519 551 568 622 684 706
GNfP/GDP (mex)
ONP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 5.7 8.5 12.5 14.2
2,6 2.6 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.2 9.0 10.9 13.0 12.5 12.8 13.8
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 1.3 15 18 22 21 21 24 29 33 38 45
14 14 16 17 18 18 20 19 18 18 19 19
6 6 7 9 11 15 19 24 27 31 37 43
7 6 5 7 10 13 14 18 21 22 24 24
50 43 46 53 62 67 74 85 94 104 117 131
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
19 11 11 13 17 18 23 34 47 50 64 82
20 18 18 20 21 18 13 12 9 6 5 2
27 28 30 33 39 45 52 47 35 39 45 51
1 1 1 0 1 1 2 4 5 7 9 10
1 1 1 2 4 6 11 18 28 26 24
Other Renewables
Total
1 1 2 3 5 8 Ю 13 16 19 22 27
70 60 62 70 84 95 107 121 131 148 170 195
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.1
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1.6 1.6
0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC 1.3 12.3 21.7 31.9 44.0 57,5 72,3 88,5 106,0 124,1 144.9 170.6
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Million ha
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 '
Other C02 ь
Total C02
CH4 total '
N20 total
SOx total
HFC
PFC
SF6
CO
NMVOC
NOx
GtC
GtC
GtC
MtCH4
MtN20-N
MtS
MtC eq.
MtC eq.
MtC eq.
MtCO
Mt
MtN
1.30
0.00
1.30
47
0.6
17.0
0
7
8
69
16
5
0.91
0,00
0.91
39
0.6
11.0
4
4
6
41
13
3
0.96
0.00
0.96
41
0.6
10.9
8
8
7
43
16
3
1.09
0.00
1.09
44
0.6
12.5
13
10
10
51
19
4
1.31
0.00
1.31
51
0.7
15.3
20
14
12
61
21
5
1.40
0.00
1.40
58
0.7
18.2
27
17
15
68
24
5
1.54
0.00
1.54
66
0.7
20.7
31
20
19
75
23
6
1.71
0.00
1.71
69
0.7
23.3
37
25
24
82
20
7
1.78
0.00
1.78
72
0.7
18.2
41
30
28
100
20
7
1.86
0.00
I. 86
78
0.8
II. 8
44
35
32
114
21
7
2.30
0.00
2.30
94
0.8
6.2
48
40
36
145
25
2.84
0.00
2.84
113
0.8
6.4
52
42
38
183
32
9
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A2 land-use data.
a:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data).
b: C02 emissions from land-use changes (lS92f).
c: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-A2 run.
d: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-A2 run.