Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 illustrates that land-use patterns are also diverging over time. It shows the main land-use categories - the percentages of total land area use that constitute the forests, the joint shares of cropland and energy biomass, and all the other categories including grasslands. As for the energy triangle in Figure TS-4, in Figure TS-5 each comer coiTesponds to a hypothetical situation in which land use is dedicated to a much greater extent than today to two of the three land-use categories - 40% to cropland and energy biomass and 20% to forests at the top, 60% to forests and 40% to other categories (including grasslands) to the left, and 80% to other categories (including grasslands) to the right. In most scenarios, the current trend of shrinking forests is eventually reversed because of slower population growth and increased agricultural productivity. Reversals of deforestation trends are strongest in the В1 and Al families. In the В1 family pasture lands decrease significantly because of increased productivity in livestock management and dietary shifts away from meat, thus illustrating the importance of both technological and social developments. The main driving forces for land-use changes are related to increasing demands for food because of a growing population and changing diets. In addition, numerous other social, economic, and institutional factors govern land-use changes such as deforestation, expansion of cropland areas, or their reconversion back to forest cover (see Chapter 3). Global food production can be increased, either through intensification (by multi-cropping, raising cropping intensity, applying fertilizers, new seeds, improved farming technology) or through land expansion (cultivating land, converting forests). Especially in developing countries, there are many examples of the potential to intensify food production in a more or less ecological way (e.g. multi-cropping; agroforestry) that may not lead to higher GHG emissions. Different assumptions on these processes translate into alternative scenarios of future land-use changes and GHG emissions, most notably CO^, methane (CH^), and nitrous oxide (NjO). A distinguishing characteristic of several models (e.g., AIM, IMAGE, MARIA, and MiniCAM) used in SRES is the explicit modeling of land-use changes caused by expanding biomass uses and hence exploration of possible land-use conflicts between energy and agricuhural sectors. The corresponding scenarios of land-use changes are illustrated in Figure TS-5 for all SRES scenarios. In some contrast to the structural changes in energy systems shown in Figure TS-4, different land-use scenarios in Figure TS-5 appear to be rather model specific, following the general trends as indicated by the respective marker scenario developed with a particular model. 9. Greenhouse Gases and Sulfur Emissions The SRES scenarios generally cover the full range of GHG and sulfur emissions consistent with the storylines and the underlying range of driving forces from studies in the literature, as documented in the SRES database. This section summarizes the emissions of CO2, CH^, and SO,. For simplicity, only these three important gases are presented separately, following the more detailed exposition in Chapter 5 (see Table TS-4 for a summary of the ranges of emissions across the scenario groups). 9,1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions 9.1.1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Their Driving Forces Figure TS-6 illustrates the CO2 emissions across the SRES scenarios in relation to each of the thi-ee main scenario driving forces - global population, gross world product and primary energy requirements. The general tendencies across the driving forces are consistent with the underlying literature. All else being equal, the higher future global populations, higher gross world product, or higher primary energy requirements would be associated with higher emissions. However, it is important to note that the range of emissions is large across the whole range of driving forces considered in SRES, indicating the magnitude of the uncertainty associated with emission scenarios. For instance, emissions can range widely for any given level of future population (e.g. between 5 to 20 GtC in case of a low population scenario of seven billion by 2100). Conversely, emissions in the range of 20 GtC are possible with global population levels ranging from seven to 15 billion by 2100. While the SRES scenarios do not map all possibilities, they do indicate general tendencies, with an uncertainty range consistent with the underlying literature. This emphasizes an important SRES conclusion: alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHGs emissions by the end of the 2P' century. Alternatively, similar future worlds with respect to socio-economic developments can result in wide differences in future GHGs emissions, primarily as a result of alternative technological developments. This suggests that technology is at least as important a driving force of future GHG emissions as population and economic development across the set of 40 SRES scenarios. 9.1.2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy, Industry, and Land Use Figure TS-7 illustrates the range of COj emissions of the SRES scenarios against the background of all the IS92 scenaiios and other emissions scenarios from the literature documented in the SRES scenario database (blue shaded area). The range of future emissions is very large so that the highest scenarios envisage a tenfold increase of global emissions by 2100 while the lowest have emissions lower than today. The literature includes scenarios with additional climate initiatives and policies, which are also referred to as mitigation or intervention scenarios. As shown in Chapter 2, many ambiguities are associated with the classification of emissions scenarios into those that include additional climate initiatives and those that do not. Many cannot be classified in this way on
Technical Summaij 37 40 35 - О о 30 - A1FI (А1С & AIG) s с о X) ь. ее и 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 5 - А1В] AIT А В1 В2 6 8 10 Population (trillion) 12 14 16 Figure TS-6a: Global carbon dioxide emissions (standardized) across SRES scenarios in relation to global population in 2100 for the four scenario families and six scenario groups. AlC and AIG have been combined into one fossil-intensive group AlFI. Shaded areas indicate scenario space for each scenario family and scenario group (in Al) (see Chapters 4 and 5). 40 tí, О 35 - 30 - AlFI (А1С& AIG) H а 5 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 - 100 200 300 400 GDP (trillion US1990$) 500 600 Figure TS-6b: Global carbon dioxide emissions (standardized) across SRES scenarios in relation to gross world product in 2100 for the four scenario families and six scenario groups. AlC and AIG have been combined into one fossil-intensive group AlFI. Shaded areas indicate scenario space for each scenario family and scenario group (in Al) (see Chapters 4 and 5). 40 35 - в о a S У 20 о 15 § ce и 30 25 - 10 ~ 500 1000 1500 2000 Primary Energy (EJ) AlFI ^А1С& AIG) 2500 3000 Figure TS-6c: Global carbon dioxide emissions (standardized) across SRES scenarios in relation to global primary energy requirements in 2100 for the four scenario families and six scenario groups. AlC and AIG have been combined into one fossilintensive group AlFI. Shaded areas indicate scenario space for each scenario family and scenario group (in Al) (see Chapters 4 and 5).
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Page 6 and 7: Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
Page 8 and 9: Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
Page 10 and 11: C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
Page 12 and 13: 4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
Page 14 and 15: 6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
Page 16 and 17: 8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
Page 18 and 19: lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
Page 20 and 21: Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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Page 24 and 25: 16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
Page 26 and 27: 18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
Page 28 and 29: Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
Page 30 and 31: CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
Page 32 and 33: 24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
Page 34 and 35: 26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37: 28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39: 30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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Page 42 and 43: 34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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Page 48 and 49: 40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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Page 64 and 65: 56 Technical Summary References: Al
Page 67 and 68: 1 Background and Overview
Page 69 and 70: Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Page 77 and 78: Background and Overview 69 1900 195
Page 79 and 80: Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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