Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN р so О in 00 00 (N 00 00 ^ со (S 00 ^ СО о CN in d d d о d d d о чо in ra S со оо чо оо г-р in т}- •-^ 4 го ^ W С- ^ NO 00 NO Ю Tt — in г- ON о ON го in m Tf r l in 00 00 NO С- ^ ^ Tt m t- 00 О ON CO V) Ul ра (N in Оч СО Г-^ Т Т СО ri CO ^—' CO Ï—( CO 00 00 MO n CO CO 0 d d CN CO ' ^—' CN CO CO © n CO чо о Г) ^ fe ri со ó ó d d ri 00 00 о fe d d • л 1 со p —. V) 00 ^ г- 5 ON 00 ON ra ?5 00 Tfn •чО ON О ra оо NO NO со ra ^ о го ra I r- ra ra чо © о Tt чо г- 00 Tt ra 3 Tf (ON го ГО ГО 00 О чо 00 00 Tt чо in Tf со со Tf чо in чо ra (3N о in 00 S S Ci ^ ra ON n tr¡ < о с и О О О n m о о o — ra ra гч "2 'Я о с о х> и. ta о cu > 3 Е 3 и и О О! СЛ СЛ ,о га ó -о I о и о >. w га ce s 3 и - i •о с а ra cu X о § Xi
Technical Summary 55 "S s CO ca < E CP CM < < rH < rH < © O N O N a 3 S (M) о 'E я в и сл ЧО I о 3 О —. lO p i< 00 - H có a\ i£, !¿ ¿ гн го o\ ЧО \ ¿ \о lo 00 IT) oo ЧО ¿. rO aé 4D p ON ri [ .—I CO ЧО 00 N O O OÑ CN oo Г-- t-; ЧО in 4D ЧО ЧО OÑ NO es ЧО N O OO CO l-Ñ со ir¡ OÑ 4 со о см о s га о га 00 0¿ p ND NO N O N O r a g га чо > '3 сг (Ù и I и о Is и Й cM со ОС N O со rr NO' ГН V ) © CM Qc O N r-, CM. O N O N CO -, CM CO CM •41 rH CM rr CO rr rr CM CM CO O N - H V ) CM CO ON CM rr d CM* 00 1Л O N 1-^ CM © 1Л O N Г - ON" N O rr O N N O rH t~- t-~ CM CO N O in © N O 2 S3 r- N O rr r- CO cn N O -H CM CO >Л ^: 00 ^ VJ t- O N rr N O rr ГЧ O N N O CO N O rH CO iri N O t- N O rr CO N O CO «Л N O р ri со 3 о- fH CM со ON СО — (N © ЧО rr rH ON rt- CO 00 f-~ 00 rt n ra rf ra ON r) СО UO rl со О n- CM r> ra r-a rt rH ra со о — ON rt- 00 ND 00 О " rj © rH o ra CO ra rl CO 00 4D Г-- in ^ Г) CM ra O N ra ?5 со in in oó ra со ^ со ю rr CM ra ГН о in о ra о га и о n о in о — ra ra ON о NO © in ON ON in T ^ * О О О ra in о о о — ra ra ra 2P 5 'S В V S O и S о •tí M) > с >^ s а с 3 в >1 В н (D С о -о сл се .52 H s: сл С о S с с 3 СГ (U > .О сг s V ^ с с о се о в с о. lA f5 сЗ Q ЧО fe » -о с се ^ с > •S s > о -а а t I о g.' ос с а Е О о. -S 2; се с^ о О сл с о и с В се aj 3 и s u .g s сл I сл в m ЕС а с с о а. * сл 73 сл il 'в сл с^ Щ .S ад gr а с о и о с 00 Í in сл U сл 'и. 3 ó сл о Г~ В се .g сл сс сл >^ _U с СЛ сл е (U О, ? 'С о о ТЗ О се ce с+- о о CD ТЗ я 3 D Où В oe 00 ТЗ со се 1) > С а- сл ^ D Cl £ О " С >. (Я .о с -s I—< се ТЗ о (U fe -С сл о о
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
Page 12 and 13: 4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
Page 14 and 15: 6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
Page 16 and 17: 8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
Page 18 and 19: lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
Page 20 and 21: Summary for Policymakers such as fe
Page 22 and 23: 14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
Page 24 and 25: 16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
Page 26 and 27: 18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
Page 28 and 29: Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
Page 30 and 31: CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
Page 32 and 33: 24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
Page 34 and 35: 26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
Page 36 and 37: 28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
Page 38 and 39: 30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
Page 40 and 41: 32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
Page 42 and 43: 34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
Page 44 and 45: 36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
Page 46 and 47: 38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
Page 48 and 49: 40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
Page 50 and 51: 42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
Page 52 and 53: 44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
Page 54 and 55: 46 Technical Summary does not exist
Page 56 and 57: 48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
Page 58 and 59: 50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
Page 60 and 61: 52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
Page 64 and 65: 56 Technical Summary References: Al
Page 67 and 68: 1 Background and Overview
Page 69 and 70: Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
Page 71 and 72: Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
Page 73 and 74: Background and Overview 65 interven
Page 75 and 76: Background and Overview 67 powerful
Page 77 and 78: Background and Overview 69 1900 195
Page 79 and 80: Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
Page 81 and 82: Background and Overview 73 1900 195
Page 83 and 84: Background and Overview characteriz
Page 85 and 86: 2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
Page 87 and 88: An Overview of the Scenario Literat
Page 109 and 110: hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
Page 111 and 112: 3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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