Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-AIM World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6132 7165 8198 9231 10208 11287 12008 12776 13536 14281 15068 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion USS 20.1 25.1 31.8 40.2 50.7 63.9 80.7 101.2 126.9 157.7 194.3 239.4 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Final Energy EJ Non-commei'cial 50 57 69 68 69 62 55 36 24 0 0 0 Solids 36 48 65 79 95 108 121 131 141 1.50 157 165 Liquids 111 115 135 162 190 204 220 244 270 308 360 421 Gas 51 56 80 101 129 147 167 177 186 201 220 241 Electricity 38 51 69 88 116 145 181 226 283 348 420 507 Total 285 327 418 499 599 668 744 824 911 1024 1169 1334 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 93 119 177 230 301 344 396 477 575 692 837 1016 143 155 179 182 176 163 152 134 121 107 92 80 73 96 133 170 216 244 276 292 •• 309 334 368 406 6 9 11 14 16 27 48 65 88 116 150 195 50 48 38 66 99 119 143 161 181 194 199 203 Other Renewables Total 10 11 13 15 20 25 31 45 67 91 112 140 376 438 551 677 829 921 1046 1173 1341 1535 1758 2040 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.3 10.2 14.3 18.5 23.9 30.4 38.1 47.7 0.1 1.6 3.3 5.1 6.9 8.3 10.2 11.4 12.7 14.0 14.9 16.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.5 7.6 10.4 12.9 16.0 19.4 22.8 26.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 173.4 281.3 406.7 551.9 714.6 898.1 1105.7 1342.9 1617.6 1937.8 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1459 1484 3389 3411 0 0 4296 4248 3805 3805 1518 1551 1586 1623 1660 1702 1744 1787 1833 1879 3446 3478 3510 3546 3582 361! 3640 3664 3683 3701 0 89 194 252 311 316 322 314 291 268 4217 4254 4301 4307 4314 4306 4299 4292 4285 4277 3768 3577 3359 3220 3082 3013 2944 2892 2858 2823 ¡2949 ¡2949 /2949 /2949 /2949 ¡2949 ¡2949 ¡2949 ¡2949 12949 Anthropogenic Emissions (standar'dized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 9.30 ¡¡.29 Other C02 GtC LU 1,07 0.92 0.07 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.22 ¡1.36 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 362 385 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.4 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 86.7 105.0 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 CO MtCO 879 877 983 952 NMVOC Mt 139 141 183 205 NOx MtN 31 32 37 42 ¡3.70 ¡5.05 ¡6.60 18.73 2 ¡.20 24.41 28.56 33.43 0.02 0.26 0.64 0.74 0.87 0.97 1.00 1.04 ¡3.72 15.31 17.23 19.47 22.07 25.38 29.56 34.47 4¡2 422 434 457 48 ¡ 505 526 549 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 132.8 135.1 140.7 151.9 165.1 148.0 ИЗ.З 92.9 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165 ¡029 ¡¡0¡ ¡¡79 ¡268 ¡366 1500 ¡679 ¡881 230 225 221 208 197 186 177 169 47 48 50 53 56 60 65 71
Statistical Table 467 Scenario A2-AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 OECD90 Populalion Million 859 914 966 1018 1071 nil 1152 1218 1288 1357 1425 ¡496 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 15.3 18.6 21.9 25.5 29.7 34.2 39.4 45.8 53.2 62.3 73.4 86.6 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 6 2 1 0 0 0 10 14 16 18 20 21 64 69 72 82 88 87 25 31 38 44 49 51 22 27 32 37 44 50 127 142 158 181 201 209 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 22 23 23 24 25 87 88 89 95 106 118 52 52 51 53 57 61 57 66 76 88 102 118 217 228 240 259 289 322 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 41 46 60 70 80 86 76 83 84 84 74 61 34 46 54 62 70 72 5 7 8 9 9 11 6 1 0 6 15 20 92 106 122 147 187 238 50 36 26 19 13 9 75 73 71 73 79 85 14 18 22 28 35 45 27 31 35 37 38 39 Other Renewables Total 6 6 7 8 10 12 167 189 211 238 257 262 13 18 23 28 31 34 272 281 299 331 383 450 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.1 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.8 4.1 5.1 6.2 7.6 9.4 11.5 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.4 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 66.7 104.0 144.7 188.0 233.4 280.7 329.4 381.3 439.7 507.3 Carbon Sequestraction GtC Land Use Million ha Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total 381 384 391 398 405 413 760 765 775 786 797 813 0 0 0 17 37 48 1050 1062 1080 1109 1137 1137 838 818 783 720 652 617 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 422 432 442 453 465 477 830 841 853 860 864 867 59 61 62 60 56 51 11.36 1136 1135 1133 1131 1128 582 560 537 522 513 504 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 2.83 3.20 3.62 4.08 4.41 4.48 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.18 -0.(8 -0.04 2.83 3.20 3.55 3.90 4.23 4.44 73 74 74 74 75 69 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 22.7 17.0 11.1 8.6 9.2 9.6 19 57 107 103 m 116 18 13 14 14 14 14 23 23 25 28 29 29 179 161 189 216 251 265 42 36 37 38 39 35 13 12 12 12 12 10 4.55 4.70 4.86 5..32 6.17 7.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 4.65 4.80 4.95 5.42 6.27 7,26 64 66 67 70 73 76 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 10.1 ll.O 12.0 13.7 16.1 19.0 125 130 135 142 151 160 14 13 11 13 15 17 28 26 20 12 14 16 280 294 307 331 365 404 32 26 21 20 22 24 9 9 10 10 1] 13
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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414 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 476 and 477: 468 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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516 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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