Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
419
Scenario AIC-MESSAGE
ASIA
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Populanon Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Tnlhon US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 13.5 27.2 44.9 65 3 95.8 126 9 155.5 186 5 218 2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 pnces) 53 8.3 13.5 22 8 36 2 52.2 70.0 96.8 126.9 155.5 186 5 218.2
Final Eneigy
EJ
Non-commeicial 24 16 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 36 53 69 75 62 48 42 39 34 29 19
Liquids 13 23 39 59 93 143 199 259 281 292 295 262
Gas 2 3 6 10 12 18 26 31 34 34 29 23
Electncity 4 7 13 25 47 74 104 145 187 223 249 262
Others 1 3 6 11 18 23 28 37 47 58 67 85
Total 62 88 128 182 249 323 407 513 588 641 668 651
Pnmary Energy
EJ
Coal 30 48 68 98 135 191 250 315 377 408 425 386
Oil 15 26 40 54 72 81 80 86 62 40 25 17
Gas 3 5 12 20 30 37 41 40 30 21 15 15
Nuclear 0 1 3 8 20 34 54 83 125 159 175 174
Biomass 24 22 27 34 44 58 77 97 116 1.34 143 142
Other Renewables I 3 6 10 18 27 37 54 69 80 89 101
Total 74 105 156 226 319 427 538 676 778 842 871 834
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 00 03 0.8 1 5 25 3 8 57 8.2 11.3 15 3 197 24 1
Oil 00 0.2 05 08 1.4 2.1 2.9 37 4.6 52 5.6 58
Gas 0.0 0.0 0 1 0.2 04 0.7 1 1 1.5 1 9 2.2 2.4 26
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1 5 19.3 44.3 78.6 125 2 188 5 269.1 367 5 481 4 604 1 729 9 849 7
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use "
Mdlion ha
Ciopland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Eneigy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1 15 1 78 2 74 4.03 5.54 7 28 8 87 10.80 12 13 12.59 12.70 11 28
Other C02 = GtC 0.37 0 26 0 22 -0 13 -0 12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0 09 -0 10 -0 04 0 01
Total C02 GtC 1 53 2 03 2.96 3.90 5 42 7 23 8.90 10.76 12.03 12.50 12.66 11 30
CH4 total^^ MtCH4 113 125 152 186 231 252 275 274 283 278 277 260
N20 total " MtN20-N 23 26 2.4 2.4 2.5 26 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 25
SOx total MtS 17 7 25 3 33.9 47 1 60 9 69 5 66.1 60 7 49.5 33.7 22 4 14.9
HFC MtC eq 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtCeq 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 348 463 621 855 1131 1414 1647 1821 1930 1778
NMVOC Mt 33 37 49 66 80 101 128 157 180 193 197 168
NOx MtN 7 9 12 17 24 32 40 48 52 56 60 58
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by usmg AIM Al m,u:ker land-use data,
a' Land-use taken from AIM-A1 marker run.
b-C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
с C02 emissions fiom land-use changes (AIM-Al marker tun)
d Non-energy lelated CH4 emissions were taken fiom AIM-Al marker run.
e Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken trora AIM-AI marker run.