Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
383
Marker Scenario AlB-AIM
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090
2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1,1 0,8 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.1 12.4 15.6 19.6 24.0 28.6 34.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Solids 9 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 2
1
1
Liquids 19 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
Gas 19 11 18 23 31 38 46 47 49 50 50 50
Electricity 8 8 10 13 15 20 28 33 40 46 50 55
Others
Total 58 38 43 50 59 70 84 91 99 105 109 113
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 18 12 14 14 13 12 n 9 7 5 4 3
Oil 22 14 12 10 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2
Gas 26 18 26 33 41 48 55 56 56 56 55 54
Nuclear 1 1 2 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 5
Biomass 2 4 0 1 2 4 8 10 12 14 14 15
Other Renewables 1 I 1 2 3 6 15 22 32 42 51 61
Total 71 51 56 64 72 86 103 112 122 129 134 139
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0,7 0,8 0.9 1.0 1,1 I.I 1.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0,6 0,7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2,1 2.6 3.2 3,7 4.3 4.9
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 23.1 35.0 46.4 57,6 68,4 78,5 87.8 96.5 104,6 112.2
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 37! 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 10 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 708 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.05 1.11 I.Î3 1,16 1,18 1.08 0.99 0.91 0.84 0.78
Other C02 G t C 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.03 0.01 -0,06 -0,13 -0.11 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 -0.03
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.24 1.14 1.14 1,10 1,05 0.97 0.90 0.84 0.79 0.75
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 58 61 60 51 42 41 39 38 36 34
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0,6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0,6 0,5 0.5
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 12.2 10.8 7.5 4,3 2.4 2.0 i,7 1.6 1.6 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 41 41 42 42 43 42 42 42 43 44
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 18
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1