Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 425
Scenario AlC-MiniCAM
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population MiUion 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 15.4 27.0 42.3 66.5 93.2 122.4 153.4 188,0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 5 7 11 16 21 18 16 15 14 13
Liquids 17 22 28 36 46 64 90 113 134 153 164 175
Gas 5 7 10 14 17 19 18 19 20 22 19 16
Electricity 3 6 11 18 38 65 99 141 182 221 252 283
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 27 38 54 75 113 164 228 293 353 410 449 487
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 4 6 10 15 37 66 102 105 109 116 123 129
Oil 20 23 29 37 41 41 37 46 52 57 43 30
Gas 7 10 16 26 39 49 57 67 76 84 70 56
Nuclear 0 2 5 7 17 26 35 45 55 65 70 76
Biomass 0 1 1 3 6 11 19 35 49 60 70 79
Other Renewables 5 6 8 11 16 23 34 55 76 98 119 140
Total 35 48 69 99 156 218 284 353 418 479
494 510
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.0 5.1 6.4 7.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.4
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 3,9 4.6 5.3
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.0 60.3 91.1 131.2 182.1 241.2 304.7 371.8 439.0 503.3
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 391 363 348 344 337 324 307 275 243 209 182 154
Grasslands 1510 1594 1727 1907 2105 2256 2361 2260 2126 1960 1830 1701
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 2 16 44 108 155 185 215 244
Forest 3641 3591 3480 3307 3114 2957 2834 2900 3020 3192 3321 3450
Others 1957 1883 1800 1707 1668 1649 1649 1631 1631 1649 1706 1762
Total 7499 7432 7354 7265 7226 7202 7195 7175 7175 7195 7254 7312
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
0.72 1.01 1.29 1.70 2.57 3.71 5.11 5.80 6.40 6.92 7.03 7.14
0.73 0.82 0.72 0.95 0.93 0.80 0.55 0.35 0.15 -0,06 -0.46 -0.86
1.45 1.83 2.01 2.65 3.51 4.51 5.67 6.15 6.55 6.87 6.57 6.28
77 85 90 101 121 131 132 134 139 147 139 130
1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.3 4,6 4.7 5.0 5.2
10.5 12.8 14.9 16.2 18.8 19.9 19.8 13.6 9.6 7.9 7.2 6.6
0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26