Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
407
Scenario AlB-MiniCAM
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population
Million
838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112
GNP/GDP (mex)
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Trillion US$
16.3 20.5 25.6 31.5 34.4 44.7 53.6 63.3 74.4 86.7 102.1 118.7
na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
Non-commercial
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
Others
Total
EJ
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10 13 12 9 9 7 5 4 3 3 4 5
72 73 70 61 51 30 28 30 32 35 43 51
27 36 41 40 38 30 25 27 30 33 24 14
22 28 33 36 37 40 42 51 63 76 102 128
0 0 16 47 59 98 129 140 151 164 141 117
130 151 172 195 195 205 229 252 279 311 313 315
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
40 47 45 35 37 42 45 43 38 30 42 54
76 78 74 64 52 26 22 22 26 35 44 53
34 47 73 113 120 141 154 169 184 201 143 84
20 16 13 12 11 9 8 9 10 12 26 39
0 2 5 10 13 24 33 36 37 37 51 66
Other Renewables
Total
12 11 11 11 11 15 21 32 46 62 82 103
182 201 222 245 245 258 283 310 342 376 388 400
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.6 3,0 3,4 3,8 4.2 4.6
0.1 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9
0.0 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.6 4.6 6.0 7,7 9,5 11.4 12.9 14.4
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
2.8 33.0 67.1 104.7 143.5 181.7 220.0 259.2 299.4 340.7 380.2 415,2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 408 411 410 408 402 378 352 309 268 229 196 163
Grasslands 796 821 866 931 963 1044 1076 1048 1007 953 898 843
Energy Biomass 0 1 9 24 34 67 92 95 93 86 120 154
Forest 921 931 922 894 867 794 760 825 904 996 1028 1059
Others 998 959 916 866 857 840 843 846 851 859 882 904
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Antlu-opogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02
GtC
Other C02
GtC
Total C02
GtC
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC
MtC eq.
PFC
MtC eq.
SF6
MtC eq.
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN
2,83 3.20 3.48 3.64 3.58 3.57 3.77 3.95 4.14 4.34 4.00 3.67
0,00 0.00 0.14 0.27 0.28 0.22 0.11 0.02 -0.07 -0.16 -0.28 -0.40
2.83 3.20 3.62 3.90 3.86 3.79 3.87 3.97 4.07 4.18 3.72 3.28
73 74 83 93 98 117 133 150 160 161 167 173
2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
22.7 17.0 13.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.5
19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20