Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

578
Statistical
Table
Scenario BZHigh-MiniCAM
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 425 427 435 438 438 435 429 423 418 412 407
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.4 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4
Liquids 18 11 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
Gas 19 14 12 11 10 8 5 5 5 5 4 3
Electricity 6 8 11 15 16 18 19 22 26 29 31 33
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total .56 44 38 41 39 38 37 39 42 45 46 47
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 18 17 17 18 38 61 86 113 147 188 236 283
Oil 20 13 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gas 26 20 18 22 20 17 13 12 11 12 9 6
Nuclear 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
Biomass 0 1 1 2 3 3 5 7 9 10 12 13
Other Renewables 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 14 16 18
Total 70 57 55 62 76 94 117 149 187 231 280 328
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.5 6.1 8.3 10.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.2 30.3 41.4 54.8 70.7 90.0 113.6 141.8 175.3 215.0
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Liuid Use
Million ha
Cropland 284 295 308 324 331 328 317 281 250 225 211 198
Grasslands 395 410 448 510 569 611 636 588 551 524 529 534
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 2 5 9 15 28 36 38 43 47
Forest 1007 1016 996 945 884 846 831 915 979 1023 1005 987
Others 691 656 625 597 589 583 578 564 561 568 590 612
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.83 0.90 1.13 1.39 1.69 2.06 2.53 3.11 3.75 4.45
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.05 -0.06 -0.11 -0.16
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.86 0.98 1.22 1.47 1.71 2.14 2.59 3.06 3.64 4.29
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 47 61 75 88 99 108 123 144 162 179
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 • 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 10.3 10.3 12.6 14.3 15.3 12.8 10.3 7.7 5.9 4.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27
SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN