Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 381
Marker Scenario AIB-AIM
World
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion USS 20.9 26.7 37.9 56.5 89.1 127.1 181.3 235.1 304.7 377.4 446.6 528.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 50 50 38 36 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 38 50 62 75 75 75 60 49 39 31 25
Liquids 111 124 155 197 231 264 302 334 369 388 387 387
Gas 51 53 89 134 194 239 295 335 380 410 421 432
Electricity 38 49 73 104 143 218 331 438 581 709 798 898
Others
Total 285 314 405 532 669 819 1002 1180 1388 1550 1643 1741
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 93 99 134 163 179 182 186 165 148 126 103 84
Oil 143 167 209 238 239 226 214 188 166 149 136 125
Gas 73 91 147 196 298 372 465 519 578 604 590 576
Nuclear 6 8 16 30 53 81 123 125 127 116 95 78
Biomass 50 48 38 61 85 128 193 247 315 360 368 376
Other Renewables 10 12 15 23 40 82 167 278 464 662 808 987
Total 376 424 559 711 895 1098 1347 1574 1840 2034 2128 2226
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal O.I 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.0 9.1 10.5 12.2 13.6 14.7 15.9
Oil 0.1 1.7 3.6 5.8 8.2 10.2 12.7 14.4 16.3 18.0 19.4 20.8
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.3 9.3 13.9 18.2 23.9 29.8 35.5 42.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 176.7 294.3 429.8 579.0 737.7 899.6 1058.2 1212.8 1360.2 1499.2
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
MilHon ha
Cropland 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420
Grasslands 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 74 158 257 418 484 560 580 536 495
Forest 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204
Others 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 3554 3400 3299 3201 3173 3213 3253
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6,90 9.68 12.12 14.01 14.95 16.01 15.70 15.43 14.83 13.94 13.10
Other C02 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.20 0.52 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.36 0.39
Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 10.88 12.64 14.48 15.35 16.38 16.00 15.73 15.18 14.30 13.49
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 373 421 466 458 452 410 373 341 314 289
N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 87.1 100.2 91.0 68.9 64.1 46.9 35.7 30.7 29.1 27.6
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1002 1032 1109 1160 1214 1245 1276 1357 1499 1663
NMVOC Mt 139 141 178 222 266 272 279 284 289 269 228 193
NOx MtN 31 32 39 46 50 49 48 46 44 43 41 40
Table VII.1: Overview tables of the 40 SRES scenarios. Main driving forces and emissions are given in the same format for
all scenarios developed by the six modeling teams for the World and the four SRES regions OECD90, REF, ASIA, and ALM in
lO-year time steps. (Except for the A2G-IMAGE^ and B2-IMAGE scenarios, for which emissions are in 10-year time steps, and
the driving forces are presented for the years 1990, 2020, 2050, and 2100).
h should be noted that:
• Subtotals may not add due to independent rounding.