Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

400 Statistical Table
Scenario AIB-MARIA
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1348 1699 2071 2449 2720 2836 3192 3231 3259 3190 3029 2864
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.7 3.0 5.4 9.8 17.6 31.7 57.1 72.4 89.3 108.4 127.4 160.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
Non-commercial
EJ
Solids 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 4 7 11 8
Liquids 24 34 51 77 95 119 151 160 190 ¡93 253 288
Gas 5 6 15 29 49 72 99 112 101 120 84 75
Electricity 3 8 12 19 25 37 57 69 81 95 111 139
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 35 50 81 126 170 229 308 344 376 414 459 510
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 6 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 7 11 8
Oi! 18 30 48 73 80 86 103 72 72 50 35 57
Gas 7 12 19 32 51 74 100 ИЗ 102 120 84 75
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 33 58 112 154 192 238 289 377
Biomass 8 13 21 35 36 49 59 96 123 147 221 232
Other Renewables 2 2 1 1 1 15 25 25 24 24 24 23
Total 41 60 93 143 204 282 399 461 517 586 664 772
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4
Oil 0,0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.7
Gas 0,0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0,7 1.2 2.0 2,9 4,1 5.1 6.3 7.1
Cumulative C02 Emissions GlC 1.4 17.8 38.3 63.8 94.0 127.7 166.9 207.9 246.0 283.1 323.3 372.2
Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 490 490 630 1025 1199 1247 1380 1150 920 736 589 589
Grasslands 2095 2095 1955 1560 1386 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352 1352 13.52
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 231 460 653 1240 1484
Forest 2202 2204 2207 2226 2248 2268 2263 2263 2263 2255 1815 1571
Others 2086 2084 2081 2063 2040 2006 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878 1878
Total 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873 6873
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 L47 2.13 2.57 3.01 3.76 3.37 3,24 3.16 2.41 2.63
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.79 0.71 0,62 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.51 1.96 2.77
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.26 2.84 3.19 3.54 4.30 3.89 3.74 3.67 4.37 5.40
CH4 total
MtCH4
N20 total
MtN20-N
SOx total
MtS
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 ¡5 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO
MtCO
NMVOC
Mt
NOx
MtN