Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

516 Statistical Table
Scenario Bl-MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
World
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 20,9 26.8 36.2 52.1 73.1 100.7 135.6 171.6 208.5 249.8 290.0 328.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.3 44.6 61.6 82.2 108.4 140.0 171.8 204.1 242.5 281.3 318.8
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 38 27 22 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 52 61 59 55 39 23 18 9 3 2 1
Liquids 111 123 155 185 214 239 243 220 190 153 131 114
Gas 41 47 61 71 74 73 63 53 47 45 39 31
Electricity 35 44 61 87 117 148 172 194 204 213 209 200
Others 8 10 18 33 52 75 98 123 136 144 138 124
Total 275 303 379 450 522 581 604 608 585 556 520 469
Primary Energy
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
EJ
91 91 109 110 97 71
128 155 172 189 203 198
71 84 119 161 221 278
7 8 11 15 20 27
46 45 55 70 89 111
37 21 15 16 18 22
192 161 132 95 64 46
297 302 281 267 232 215
36 42 47 48 46 41
121 129 150 174 215 235
Other Renewables
Total
8 13 23 41 62 103
352 395 488 586 692 788
156 211 239 248 239 197
837 865 865 848 813 755
Cumulative Resources Use
Coal
Oil
Gas
ZJ
0.0 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.0
0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6
0.0 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.6
5.7 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8
10.6 12.5 14.1 15.4 16.4 17.0
9.4 12.3 15.3 18.2 20.8 23.2
Cumulative C02 Emissions
GtC
7.1 82.4 167.5 258.6 350.7 443.3
'32.4 613.9 686.3 749.0 801.1 844.4
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use a
Million ha
Cropland 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429
Grasslands 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225
Forest 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719
Others 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 ^ GtC 5.99 6.90 8.26 9.19 9.93 9.91 9.24 8.36 7.32 6.36 5.24 4.68
Other C02 " GtC 1.11 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65
Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.05 9.16 9.27 9.25 8.57 7.74 6.75 5.79 4.63 4.04
CH4 total -I MtCH4 310 323 356 386 421 442 453 436 424 392 334 279
N20 total = MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 65.6 55.2 47.5 37.9 29.9 24.7 20.2 16.5 13.9 12.2
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 1001 1120 1233 1326 1331 1268 1288 1307 1409 1436
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 180 183 180 175 154 141 121 93 70
NOx MtN 31 32 38 44 47 46 40 33 27 23 20 17
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM В1 land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Bl emulation run.
b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Bl emulation run),
d; Non -energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-B1 emulation run.
e: Non -energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-B 1 emulation run.