Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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550 Statistical Table Scenario B2-ASF ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1216 1511 1890 2269 2603 3100 3289 3502 3615 3908 4080 4139 GNP/GDP (тех) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 2.4 3.6 5.4 8.2 11.8 19.2 22.6 29.7 34.0 50.5 72.1 81.2 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 10 11 13 14 15 21 33 47 72 83 94 106 112 117 127 139 152 5 8 14 25 33 41 49 54 59 62 63 65 4 6 10 16 22 28 35 41 48 55 64 73 31 49 74 115 143 171 198 217 235 257 281 305 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 4 7 10 15 26 37 48 73 99 123 145 167 25 38 56 85 83 81 79 54 30 14 8 1 8 12 19 32 45 58 71 77 82. 84 84 84 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 0 0 2 3 13 23 34 46 58 69 79 88 Other Renewables Total I 2 4 5 7 9 12 14 16 20 26 31 39 60 91 141 176 210 245 267 288 314 345 375 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.8 5.2 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 0.0 o.l 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2,1 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.3 6.1 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 38.5 66.1 101.3 140.4 181.6 224.2 267.8 313.2 362.2 415.5 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 Other C02 GtC 0.73 Total C02 GtC 1.45 CH4 total MtCH4 77 N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 SOx total MtS 10.5 HFC MtC eq. 0 PFC MtC eq. 4 SF6 MtC eq. 3 CO MtCO 396 NMVOC Mt 48 NOx MtN 7 1.01 0.82 1.83 85 1.3 12.8 2 4 5 404 55 1.52 0.78 2.30 105 1.6 15.6 12 7 5 451 61 10 2.38 0.85 3.22 128 1.9 22.5 20 10 7 499 71 14 3.00 0.82 3.82 143 2.2 27.5 32 14 9 590 81 18 3.28 0.74 4.02 151 2.5 26.3 54 20 20 624 88 20 3.55 0.66 4.21 160 2.7 25.2 84 27 16 658 95 22 3.84 0.47 4.31 166 2.9 21.4 120 33 17 674 104 23 4.13 0.28 4.41 173 3.0 17.5 157 37 15 689 114 24 4.50 0.18 4.68 179 3.1 15.2 190 39 11 717 127 25 4.93 0.19 5.12 185 3.2 14.4 211 39 13 757 143 27 5.36 0.19 5.55 191 3.3 13.5 223 37 14 797 160 29
Statistical Table 551 Scenario B2-IMAGE World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5297 7869 9875 10360 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 piices) Trillion US$ 21.0 0.0 41.2 0.0 75.7 0.0 198.7 0.0 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 50 40 98 50 35 0 272 35 36 106 102 99 0 377 15 46 124 143 177 0 504 9 73 128 160 355 0 726 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear- EJ 82 116 78 113 130 182 197 1.33 212 168 86 187 Biomass Non-commercial NTE (Nuclear/Solar) & Hydro Total 1 6 17 344 6 35 41 506 34 15 90 679 76 9 322 846 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 8.0 7.3 9.6 17.9 12.3 19.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 168.2 266.2 373.5 487.3 607.7 729.7 8.5 964.0 1076.4 1183.5 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 5.99 6.90 Other C02 GtC LU 1.07 Total C02 GtC 7.10 7.97 CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 N20 total MtN20-N 6.7 7.0 SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 PFC MtC eq. 32 25 SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 CO MtCO 879 877 NMVOC Mt 139 141 NOx MtN 31 32 7.68 1.50 9.19 396 9.3 52.6 786 42 48 755 147 36 8.47 I. 94 10.40 469 II. 5 47.7 299 55 55 632 152 39 9.39 I. 67 11.06 491 II. 8 42.4 272 70 60 615 151 43 10.31 1.40 11.7! 514 12.2 44.8 315 88 76 597 149 47 11.23 1.13 12.36 536 12.5 41.7 346 107 79 580 147 51 10.84 1.20 12.04 540 12.5 42.5 413 120 80 596 149 49 10.46 1.26 11.72 544 12.6 43.3 483 128 74 612 151 10.07 1.33 11.40 548 12.6 41.7 548 130 63 629 1.54 46 9.68 1.39 11.07 551 12.7 37.9 603 127 65 645 156 44 9.30 1.46 10.75 555 12.7 34.0 649 121 69 661 158 43
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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498 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 508 and 509: 500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
Page 510 and 511: 502 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 512 and 513: 504 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
Page 514 and 515: 506 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 530 and 531: 522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
Page 534 and 535: 526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
Page 540 and 541: 532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
Page 550 and 551: 542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
Page 562 and 563: 554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
Page 564 and 565: 556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
Page 566 and 567: 558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
Page 580 and 581: 572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 582 and 583: 574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
Page 584 and 585: 576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 586 and 587: 578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
Page 588 and 589: 580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
Page 590 and 591: 582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
Page 592 and 593: 584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
Page 594 and 595: 586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
Page 596 and 597: 588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
Page 598 and 599: 590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
Page 600 and 601: 592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
Page 602 and 603: 594 Glossary of Terms standards for
Page 605 and 606: XII List of Major IPCC Reports
Page 607: List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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