Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'""^'^^ 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Tnllion US$ 16 3 20 5 25.1 30 1 32 0 38 8 na na na na na na 44.6 .50 3 56 5 63.2 71.0 79 3 na na na lU na na Final Energy Non-commercial Sohds Liquids Gas Electricity Otheis Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11 10 7 7 6 72 63 55 48 43 34 27 31 36 41 39 35 22 24 25 27 28 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.30 128 126 123 117 107 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 5 4 3 3 3 35 35 36 38 39 41 32 30 30 32 33 33 35 38 42 46 47 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 108 108 112 118 122 126 Prunary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 40 38 32 22 22 23 76 67 58 49 43 32 34 40 50 64 61 54 20 13 9 8 8 8 0 2 3 3 3 3 23 18 13 9 10 11 32 33 35 38 40 41 49 46 45-- 45 47 49 7 7 6 6 6 7 3 3 4 3 3 3 Other Renewables Total 12 11 10 10 10 14 182 171 162 155 148 133 20 27 34 42 41 39 134 134 137 143 147 150 Cumulative Resouices Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 00 0.4 08 1 1 1.2 1.5 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.7 00 0.4 09 1 4 1.7 2.6 1 7 1 9 2 1 22 23 24 30 3.3 37 40 44 48 3 1 36 40 45 49 54 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 28 33 0 64 7 95.3 124 5 150 8 174 4 196 7 217 6 236 7 2.54 0 269 7 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 408 410 407 399 386 343 796 821 867 933 960 1022 0 1 1 0 0 0 921 931 923 897 883 862 998 959 925 894 893 896 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 305 259 221 193 158 124 1037 988 939 891 850 809 0 0 0 0 0 0 873 968 1040 1090 1117 1145 907 908 922 949 998 1046 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3124 Anthiopogenic Emissions (standaidized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtCeq PFC MtC eq SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 2.83 3 20 3 04 2 83 271 2 43 0.00 ООО 0 10 0 16 0 13 0.00 2.83 3 20 3 14 2 99 2.84 2.43 73 74 82 93 100 119 26 26 28 3.1 3 2 3.8 22.7 17 0 12 2 68 58 4 9 19 58 108 103 109 112 18 13 12 10 8 7 24 23 16 5 6 6 2.37 2 23 2.13 2 08 2.16 2 24 -0.09 -0 05 -0.11 -0 28 -0 51 -0 74 2 28 2.17 2.02 1.80 I 65 1 50 132 140 143 143 155 167 4 1 4.3 44 47 4.9 5 1 42 37 34 34 3.6 38 116 117 117 119 120 120 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
Statistical Table 523 Scenario Bl-MiniCAM REF 990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.3 7.1 9.2 11.5 13.4 15.6 na na na na na na na na na na na na Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 18 12 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 19 15 14 16 16 14 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 8 11 15 17 19 21 22 23 22 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 44 40 46 47 46 45 42 40 38 36 34 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 18 17 16 15 16 16 15 9 6 5 4 3 20 13 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 26 20 20 28 28 26 21 18 15 13 12 11 3 4 5 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 0 1 1 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 Other Renewables Total 3 3 4 5 6 10 16 20 23 24 21 19 70 57 56 66 68 69 69 63 58 54 49 44 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.2 30.6 40.8 50.6 59.2 66.6 72.9 77.4 80.0 81.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 284 294 300 304 295 278 251 205 166 133 117 101 395 410 452 522 587 627 643 564 493 430 428 426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1007 1016 997 948 893 867 869 994 1093 1167 1147 1127 691 657 628 604 602 606 614 615 626 647 685 724 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS HFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 1.30 0.91 0.83 0.93 0.94 0.89 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.O8 0.09 0.06 -0.01 0.10 0.08 -0.07 -0.17 -0.28 1.30 0.91 0.86 1.01 1.03 0.95 0.77 0.71 0.56 0.33 0.20 0.07 47 39 46 60 70 78 84 78 78 84 90 97 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 17.0 11.0 9.6 8.9 9.5 8.6 6.5 3.6 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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Page 480 and 481: 472 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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