Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Scenaiio Driving Forces 155
3.7. Policies
3.7.1. Introduction
"Policies" in this report are government policies. They are
formulated against the larger background of national and
intemational events and trends, and result from millions of
decisions within the existing and only slowly changing
cultural, economic, and military balances, Their
implementation often poses considerable problems if they
represent longer-term interests and insights.
Government policies are among the dynamics that influence
population growth, economic and social development,
technological change, resource exploitation, and pollution
management. While the role of policy has been touched upon
occasionally in earlier sections, government policy
development can be thought of as a process in itself. The role
of policies in SRES needs to be considered, partly because
governments are one of the primary audiences for the scenarios
and partly because the scenarios are intended to form a
reference against which mitigation strategies can be assessed
(although, as stated earlier, the SRES terms of reference
require the SRES scenarios to not consider any explicit climate
policies).
GHG emissions are affected by policies designed for a wide
variety of purposes. Perhaps the most obvious are energy
policies, but other important policy areas are those of economic
development, technology development, education, health,
social welfare, transport, industry, agriculture, and forestry.
Policies in each of these areas also affect other areas. In each
policy area various instruments are used. The choice of
instrument may influence both the policy's success in
achieving its primary objective and its effect on GHG
emissions. Taxes, subsidies, regulations, information-based
instruments, and R&D all bring different mechanisms into play
and so have different affects.
The remainder of this section is organized around speciflc
policy areas or objectives. It considei's major policy issues in
each area, and discusses the possible implications for GHG
emissions in reference (non-mitigation) scenarios.
3.7.2. Policy Areas
3.7.2.1. Population and Social Welfare Policies
Given the interactions between demographics and social and
economic development discussed in Sections 3.2 and 3.3,
population and social welfare policies that currently exist or are
options for various countries can also be viewed as "nonclimate"
policies (in the sense that they are not motivated by
climate concems, but will affect future GHG emissions).
Studies support the notion that reduced population growth
significantly abates GHG emissions. Indeed, some integrated
assessment models suggest that emissions scenarios may be
more sensitive to population changes, with respect to
nonnalized uncertainty analysis, than to other factors that
affect emissions (Nordhaus, 1993). Therefore, social policies
that affect fertility rates (and mortality and migration rates)
also could have a significant impact on future emissions. By
the same token, demographic policies for health and education
may also affect productivity growth in a positive manner. Thus,
the desirable objective to further development may result in
higher economic growth, consumption, and emissions per
capita. The overall effects are likely to vary from country to
country.
For instance, efforts can be made to help women avoid
unwanted pregnancies or to reduce infant mortality.
Demographic health surveys suggest that more than 100
million women in less developed countries do not want to
become pregnant, but they do not practice contraception
(Bongaarts, 1994). The Cairo Program of Action (UN, 1995)
estimates that US$17 billion annually would successfully
deliver family planning and reproductive health services to the
majority of people in developing countries who desire them.
Family planning assistance today contributes to the observed
recent declines in fertility rates in many developing countries.
In one study, it was estimated that such programs over the past
two decades reduced the present population by about 40
million persons, which in itself may reduce future population
levels by some 400 million people in the year 2100 (Bongaarts
et al, 1990).
Other policy measures are less direct, but also exert important
influences on fertility rates. These include improvements in
health care and female education, especially primary school
education, which is a factor that correlates highly with fertility
rates in young women (Bongaarts, 1994). Similarly, measures
that improve gender equality reduce fertility rates as they
encourage non-maternal roles and increase employment and
empowerment opportunities for women. Their implementation
is currentiy unrelated to concems about global warming, yet
their effect on this environmental issue may be significant.
3.7.2.2. Policies that Target Economic Development and
Technological Innovation
A wide range of policies and circumstances may contribute
toward the desirable objective of furthering development and
economic growth (see Section 3.3). In the short tenn, fiscal,
monetary, and interest rate management policies ai-e among the
main instmments used by governments. In the longer term,
economic growth may be affected more by measures that
influence fundamental capabilities, such as policies in
education, and in the development of physical infrastructure,
social and economic institutions, and national systems for
innovation.
As emphasized in Sections 3,3 and 3.4, the effects of economic
growth on GHG emissions depend on economic stracture and
technology. Govemments generally aim to encourage the
development of particular sectors that are perceived to