Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 385
Marker Scenario AlB-AIM
ALM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2727
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.5 31.9 52.0 69.4 92.5 116.6 139.1 165.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commerciaJ 14 20 20 22 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids I 2 2 4 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2
Liquids 17 22 38 58 78 102 133 153 176 191 196 202
Gas 4 9 25 43 64 84 112 125 139 147 145 144
Electricity 4 6 15 24 36 65 117 156 210 254 278 304
Others
Total 40 59 100 151 205 275 369 443 532 596 623 652
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 5 7 16 26 29 35 42 40 38 35 30 26
Oil 27 36 60 77 86 94 104 94 85 78 71 65
Gas 9 18 46 58 108 139 178 196 215 217 200 184
Nuclear 0 0 1 4 9 20 45 45 46 42 33 26
Biomass 14 18 19 36 55 78 110 141 181 206 211 215
Other Renewables 2 3 4 6 12 26 59 100 168 238 282 335
Total 57 81 146 208 299 401 538 635 750 822 837 852
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1,4 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.8 1,5 2.3 3.1 4,2 5.0 6.0 6.9 7.6 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.5 LO 1.8 2.9 4.7 6.3 8.4 10.6 12.5 12.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 41.6 75,3 116.8 165.4 221,4 281.1 340.3 398.2 453.2 504.6
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 147 240 277 321 332 307 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1542 1463 1417 1373 1363 1387 14U
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (stai ndardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 0.72 1.01 2.30 3.40 4.20 4.91 5.73 5.70 5.67 5.47 5.13 4.81
Other C02 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.63 0.40 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.16
Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.93 3.80 4.52 5.20 5.99 5.94 5.90 5.68 5.32 4.97
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 99 120 134 139 144 137 130 120 107 95
N20 total MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 20.0 25.3 28.4 35.5 44.1 28.0 17.8 13.7 12.8 12.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 413 427 410 424 439 455 472 513 588 679
NMVOC Mt 48 55 75 99 119 124 129 131 134 124 105 88
NOx MtN 7 8 11 15 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 2i