Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical
Table
443
Scenario A IT-AIM
REF
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 3.39
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2,9 5.3 8.1 12.4 15.6 19.6 24.0 28.6 34.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2
!
Liquids 19 10 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11
Gas 19 13 18 20 22 25 28 26 24 22 21 20
Electricity 8 9 10 11 12 18 26 31 37 40 40 39
Others
Total 58 40 39 42 46 56 67 70 74 75 73 72
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 18 8 8 9 10 10 10 7 5 4 4 4
Oil 22 ¡3 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4
Gas 26 22 27 29 30 32 34 31 27 26 25 25
Nuclear 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 9 8 8 9 10
Biomass 2 4 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 13 13 14
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 6 14 21 31 37 34 32
Total 71 51 50 52 57 66 83 83 89 93 91 90
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0,3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0,4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9
Gas 0.0 0.3 0,5 0,8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 3,1
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 21.6 30,9 40.3 49.7 58.9 67.4 74.4 80.4 86.2 92.0
Carbon Sequestraction
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 279 284 295 299 308 300 292 273 255 235 215 196
Grasslands 346 356 398 462 550 565 581 577 574 566 553 .54!
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 6 11 24 30 38 46 52 59
Forest 960 961 954 960 953 958 963 974 985 997 1009 1021
Otheis 720 703 657 585 488 466 445 448 451 459 473 488
Total 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.92 0,93 0,92 0.93 0.94 0.78 0,66 0.61 0.61 0.60
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.02 -0,01 0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0,03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.94 0.92 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.76 0,63 0.58 0.58 0.58
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 59 65 68 59 51 49 48 45 43 41
N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 12.2 10.8 7.5 4.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 39 40 43 46 49 50 51 52 54 55
NMVOC Mt 16 13 13 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 4
NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1