Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

An Overview of Scenarios 233
Dietz et al. (2000) performed illustrative simulations of possible future light pattems. Considering the high correlation between
observed radiance-calibrated night satelhte imagery data and economic activity variables like GDP, these simulations mdicate
future spatial pattems of economic activity. As a basis of the simulation, Dietz et al. (2000) rescaled present night luminosity
pattems using global and regional GDP growth pattems of the preliminary AIB marker scenario reported in the SRES openprocess
web site combined with a simple stochastic model of spatial evolution and interaction. An illustrative simulation for the
year 2070 is given in Figure 4-13 (top panel). The resultant changes in spatial light pattems indicate socio-economic activities
and provide useful information for infrastmcmre planning, such as expansion of gas and electricity networks. When combined
with topographical information, like latitude, the data can also be used as mput to climate impact and vulnerability assessments
(e.g., extent of socio-economic activities that may be affected by sea-level rise).
T 1 ^—-I r 1 r
Figure 4-13: Radiance calibrated lights obtained from night satellite imagery. Simation in 1995/1996 (bottom panel) and
illustrative simulation for the SRES Al scenario's implied GDP growth for 2070 (top panel). Color codes refer to radiance
units (DN), where radiance = DN3/2 x IQ-io W/cm^ per sr/|am (Watts per square centimeter per steradian per micrometer, the
brightness units to which the US Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System
(OLS) is calibrated; it normalizes for the bandpass (|Д.т) and solid angle of the optics (cm^/sr)).