Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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450 Statistical Table Illustrative Scenario AIT-MESSAGE ALM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.8 20.0 34.3 53.5 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1 3.8 5.1 7.5 13.3 22.8 36.7 55.3 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1 Final Energy EJ Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total Primary Energy EJ 1 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 2 1 1 1 17 24 35 52 75 97 114 122 123 122 125 109 4 6 11 18 27 35 43 54 56 49 42 36 3 5 9 17 33 54 81 111 140 165 188 215 0 2 4 7 12 21 33 44 59 80 96 118 39 52 73 106 157 217 279 336 379 418 452 478 Coal 5 5 8 10 16 24 26 24 18 12 5 4 Oil 21 31 40 53 69 81 90 89 77 54 43 28 Gas 8 14 23 37 65 91 101 107 92 78 69 63 Nuclear 0 0 I 2 6 12 23 30 38 40 40 35 Biomass 14 13 17 24 36 50 62 81 104 134 153 153 Other Renewables 2 4 8 14 21 44 87 150 236 326 406 508 Total 49 68 96 139 213 301 389 480 565 644 717 791 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.5 Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.8 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.4 17.8 37.0 58.5 85.3 119.6 159.0 199.2 235.8 265.4 288.2 305.8 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use » Million ha Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378 Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733 Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284 Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674 Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411 Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 b GtC 0.72 1.01 1.41 1.92 2.82 3.62 3.94 3.84 3.26 2.48 1.94 1.48 Other C02 с GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0..36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03 Total C02 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.01 2.28 3.07 3.81 4.07 3.96 3.36 2.56 2.00 1.51 CH4 total d MtCH4 77 85 98 114 133 150 162 155 141 123 105 90 N20 total e MtN20-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.0 15.7 16,8 15.7 13.5 11.3 8.8 6.8 HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196 PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30 SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26 CO MtCO 396 404 431 474 533 608 67! 760 858 938 992 1035 NMVOC Mt 48 55 63 74 83 92 98 95 87 69 58 50 NOx MtN 7 8 10 12 15 18 20 21 19 15 13 12 Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data, a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run. b:C02 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data), c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM AIT run), d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM Al marker run. e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM AIT run.
Statistical Table 451 Scenario AIT-MARIA World 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8048 8207 8704 8536 8372 8028 7527 7056 GNP/GDP (mex) GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) Trillion US$ 19.4 25,9 35,9 52.0 75.1 113.5 177.4 226.2 282.1 347.5 418.0 518.5 Final Energy Non-commercial Solids Liquids Gas Electricity Others Total EJ 48 38 39 27 19 13 9 11 17 26 39 27 138 152 185 234 269 310 357 363 429 416 475 512 56 65 84 110 156 201 250 278 213 232 177 179 35 48 56 67 80 96 128 148 160 177 197 215 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 278 302 364 439 525 621 744 800 819 852 888 934 Primary Energy Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass EJ 90 69 61 44 32 23 16 16 21 29 41 29 123 132 154 187 190 213 239 190 209 152 169 190 71 101 134 169 222 266 303 331 268 289 235 239 22 28 33 44 72 117 162 225 252 298 351 404 28 31 41 64 100 111 128 180 227 270 313 329 Other Renewables Total 9 8 7 7 6 17 65 67 69 69 67 65 343 370 431 515 620 747 913 1010 1044 1106 1175 1255 Cumulative Resources Use Coal Oil Gas ZJ 0.0 0,9 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.4 0.0 1,2 2.5 4.1 6.0 7,9 10.0 12.4 14.3 16.4 17,9 19.6 0.0 0,7 1.7 3.1 4.8 7.0 9.6 12.7 16.0 18.7 21.5 23.9 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 7.1 82.4 165.8 256.2 352.3 454.4 563.6 672.1 773.5 868.6 959.2 1049.4 Carbon Sequestration GtC 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha 1451 1451 1613 2001 2170 2213 2344 2069 1802 1545 1287 1182 3395 3395 3236 2851 2682 2645 2606 2597 2597 2597 2597 2597 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 324 592 848 1107 1212 4138 4142 4157 4177 4208 4244 4301 4374 4375 4375 4375 4375 4061 4057 4039 4017 3985 3944 3754 3681 3681 368! 3681 3681 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 13045 Antliropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC Other C02 GtC Total C02 GtC CH4 total MtCH4 N20 total MtN20-N SOx total MtS CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. PFC MtC eq. SF6 MtC eq. CO MtCO NMVOC Mt NOx MtN 5.99 6.90 7.66 8.41 8.95 9.88 10.80 10.25 9.76 9.15 8.98 9.14 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.99 0.87 0.70 0.47 0.18 0.09 0.03 -0.04 -0.04 7.10 7.97 8.70 9.39 9.82 10.58 11.26 10.43 9.85 9.18 8.94 9.10 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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Page 408 and 409: 400 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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502 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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504 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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