Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

Statistical Table 439
Illustrative Scenario AIFI-MiniCAM,
ASIA
previously AlG-MiniCAM
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.5 11.7 23.8 40.3 61.0 86.0 111.7 138.3 164.3 192.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 31 46 64 84 99 111 88 73 66 57 48
Liquids 14 19 28 39 53 74 103 123 141 156 146 136
Gas 2 5 9 15 20 24 29 37 43 49 46 42
Electricity 4 11 25 47 84 129 182 232 276 314 328 343
Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 40 67 109 165 240 327 424 480 533 584 576 569
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 26 45 73 110 165 212 251 221 200 188 194 200
Oil 16 21 30 42 48 66 97 126 148 165 136 107
Gas 3 9 22 43 71 103 137 174 200 216 200 183
Nuclear 1 4 9 18 33 49 67 74 82 91 94 98
Biomass 0 2 5 9 15 20 26 35 41 42 48 54
Other Renewables 3 4 5 6 11 20 33 52 71 88 102 116
Total 49 85 145 228 342 470 611 682 742 790 774 758
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.4 5.3 7.6 9.8 12.0 13.9 15.8 17.8
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.8 8.2 9.6
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.8 10.8 12.8
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.5 19.3 44.6 82.4 137.4 211.6 305.0 409.2 515.3 623.3 728.8 827.9
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use
Million ha
Cropland 389 400 410 420 422 416 403 358 316 275 238 202
Grasslands 508 524 555 602 650 690 721 712 695 669 640 610
Energy Biomass 0 0 I 4 8 (3 19 33 37 32 44 55
Forest 1168 1144 1102 1044 988 948 922 960 1016 1088 1144 1199
Others 664 632 600 568 557 555 559 557 562 573 596 620
Total 2729 2699 2669 2637 2627 2622 2624 2621 2625 2637 2662 2686
Antlu-opogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.82 4.27 6.17 8.12 10.13 10.42 10.68 10.93 10.42 9.92
Other C02 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.17 0.10 0.03 -0.05 -0.19 -0.33
Total C02 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.02 4.54 6.46 8.38 10.30 10.52 10.71 10.88 10.23 9.59
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 135 148 166 186 208 198 189 179 181 182
N20 total MtN20-N 2.3 2,6 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 38.8 52.7 57.1 51.9 37.0 24.3 17.0 15.1 14.6 14.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 371 494 639 777 1030 1067 1133 1226 1242 1187
NMVOC Mt 33 37 50 63 73 86 119 126 Í33 144 139 130
NOx MtN 7 9 13 19 26 34 44 47 48 51 49 47