Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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472 Statistical Table Marker Scenario A2-ASF OECD90 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 851 923 975 1027 1072 1131 1151 1202 1228 1323 1451 1496 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 15.3 18.7 22.3 26.0 30.0 37.1 39.9 46.3 50.0 63.1 80.7 87.6 GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 pnces) Final Energy EJ Non-commercial Solids 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 Liquids 67 85 93 99 97 94 92 95 98 109 128 146 Gas 27 30 29 33 37 41 46 49 52 54 57 60 Electricity 23 27 33 39 46 52 59 69 79 93 112 130 Others Total 130 154 167 184 193 202 211 227 244 272 312 352 Primary Energy EJ Coal 33 29 32 37 55 74 92 115 138 164 191 218 Oil 76 94 107 116 94 72 49 31 12 2 1 0 Gas 34 37 37 43 52 61 69 72 74 75 76 77 Nuclear- 7 10 11 11 14 17 20 27 34 45 58 72 Biomass 0 0 1 4 10 16 23 23 23 24 26 29 Other Renewables 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 17 20 23 Total 155 176 194 220 235 250 266 281 296 326 372 418 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.0 5.3 6.8 8.6 10.6 Oil 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 66.5 103.8 145.7 190.6 237.2 285.6 335.8 389.1 448.0 513.7 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Forest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.96 4.42 4.58 4.74 4.93 5.11 5.55 6.23 6.91 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.96 4.42 4.58 4.74 4.93 5.11 5.55 6.23 6.91 CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 78 84 91 98 105 113 121 133 149 166 N20 total MtN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 7.9 8.7 9.3 9.5 9.8 9.3 8.8 9.1 10.5 11.8 HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160 PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17 SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16 CO MtCO 179 161 168 175 175 158 141 147 154 174 209 243 NMVOC Mt 42 36 40 44 46 44 42 44 45 50 58 67 NOx MtN 13 12 14 16 17 17 16 16 16 17 19 21
Statistical Table 473 Marker Scenario A2-ASF REF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Population Million 418 421 438 454 473 507 519 551 568 622 684 706 GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 5.7 8.5 12.5 14.2 GNP/GDP (ppp) TriUion (1990 prices) Final Energy Non-commercial EJ SoUds 17 10 10 11 11 II 11 11 11 11 11 11 Liquids 15 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 22 25 31 37 Gas 15 11 13 17 22 27 32 36 40 42 44 46 Electricity 8 6 8 11 14 16 19 22 26 31 37 43 Others Total 55 38 43 52 61 70 79 89 99 110 123 137 Primary Energy EJ Coal 23 12 13 17 19 21 23 26 30 37 48 59 Oil 17 12 13 15 17 19 21 16 11 7 3 0 Gas 25 19 22 29 33 37 40 43 46 49 51 52 Nuclear 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 8 10 14 18 22 Biomass 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 9 12 14 15 Other Renewables I 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 Total 67 45 52 64 74 84 93 102 111 124 139 155 Cumulative Resources Use ZJ Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 9.1 9.5 ¡0.1 Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 1.3 12.3 22.0 33.2 46.3 60.6 75.6 91.3 108.3 126.6 147.1 170.0 Carbon Sequestration GtC Land Use Cropland Grasslands Energy Biomass Foiest Others Total Million ha Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized) Fossil Fuel C02 GlC 1.30 0.91 1.03 1.22 L40 1.46 1.52 1.63 1.75 1.93 2.17 2.41 Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total C02 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.03 1.22 1.40 1.46 1.52 1.63 1.75 1.93 2.17 2.41 CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 41 46 57 67 78 92 106 119 131 143 N20 total MtN20-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 11.1 12.0 12.0 U.l 10.2 8.2 6.2 4.8 4.0 3.2 HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 13 20 27 3¡ 37 41 44 48 52 PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42 SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 7 ¡0 12 15 ¡9 24 28 32 36 38 CO MtCO 69 41 40 40 47 51 56 63 70 83 101 ¡19 NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 19 25 28 3¡ 29 27 29 33 37 NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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An Overview of Scenarios 211 availa
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An Overview of Scenarios 213 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 215 produc
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An Overview of Scenarios 217 In par
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An Overview of Scenarios 219 S о
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An Overview of Scenarios 223 a curr
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An Overview of Scenarios 225 4.4.8.
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An Overview of Scenarios 227 20% л
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An Overview of Scenarios 233 Dietz
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An Overview of Scenarios 235 consid
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An Overview of Scenai ios 237 Gallo
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Emission Scenarios
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Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Emission Scenarios 243 Box 5-1: Sce
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Emission Scenar nos PQ PQ и CN m
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Emission Scenarios 247 tí ü
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Emission Scenarios 249 40 35 |Energ
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Emission Scenarios 251 25 , [Energy
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Emission Scenarios 253 I I .2 I I
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Emission Scenanos 255 the base-year
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Emission Scénarios 257 is between
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Emission Scenarios 259 700 600 Bl F
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Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Emission Scénarios 263 oi • •
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Emission Scénarios 265 Table 5-7:
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Emission Scénarios 267 Table 5-9:
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Emission Scenarios 269 technically
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Emission Scénarios 271 ^ — BIT M
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Emission Scénarios 273 4000 AlB AI
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Emission Scenarios 275 M B v/ы —
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Emission Scenarios 277 Box 5-3: Sul
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Emission Scenarios 279 Box 5-4: Fut
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Emission Scenarios о ON — 00 Ч
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Emission Scenarios QS ON NO со ON
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Emission Scenarios 285 Table 5-14:
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Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Emission Scenarios 289 1200 oU, \ \
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Emission Scenarios 291 Box 5-5: Gri
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6 Summary Discussions and Recommend
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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Page 430 and 431: 422 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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Page 444 and 445: 436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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Page 460 and 461: 452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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Page 474 and 475: 466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
Page 482 and 483: 474 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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Page 490 and 491: 482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
Page 492 and 493: 484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
Page 504 and 505: 496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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524 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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544 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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552 Statistical Table Scenario В2-
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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