Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

402 Statistical Table
Scenario AlB-MESSAGE
OECD90
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (тех) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.5 25.3 31.0 38.0 46,1 54.1 65.5 76.9 90.3 105.7 121.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 21.8 26.9 33.0 40.1 47.2 57.2 67.3 79.2 92.9 106.6
Final Energy
EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 13 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 68 73 78 77 75 70 67 55 45 36 27
Gas 22 28 35 40 44 44 43 41 40 36 24 12
Electricity 22 28 38 50 62 70 81 97 117 132 150 172
Others 1 1 4 9 12 17 24 34 50 70 93 109
Total 124 138 157 180 197 207 218 240 262 282 303 320
Primary Energy
EJ
Coal 38 36 39 42 44 32 20 11 6 5 3 2
Oil 72 82 79 80 75 67 58 55 43 35 28 25
Gas 33 45 60 76 87 96 97 107 '118 118 108 113
Nuclear 6 7 9 10 14 20 27 38 48 56 60 59
Biomass 6 9 14 20 27 34 42 44 44 40 41 52
Other Renewables 4 6 12 16 22 35 59 81 114 156 211 246
Total 159 184 210 243 269 283 303 335 372 409 450 497
Cumulative Resources Use
ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2,0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 3,9 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.2 6,5 6.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.0 4,0 5.0 6.0 7.2 8,4 9.5
Cumulative C02 Emissions GtC 2.8 33.0 66.3 102.5 140.5 176.8 208.3 236.9 264.6 290.9 314.5 336.2
Carbon Sequestration
GtC
Land Use *
Million ha
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 712 691 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel C02 " GtC 2.83 3.20 3.43 3.76 3.84 3.44 2.94 2.82 2.66 2.49 2.!5 2.14
Other C02 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.01
Total C02 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.46 3.78 3.83 3.41 2.89 2.83 2.71 2.55 2.18 2.15
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 71 71 68 65 63 63 63 62 63
N20 total = MIN20-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.7 3.7 2,3 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.1 4.4
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 194 218 217 217 214 206 200 186 149 151
NMVOC Mt 42 36 39 41 37 33 28 27 25 21 14 9
NOx MtN 13 12 14 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 И
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM Al marker land-use data,
a: Land-use taken from AIM-Al marker run.
b:C02 emissions froin fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data),
c: C02 emissions from land-use changes (AIM-Al marker run),
d: Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.
e: Non-energy related N20 emissions were taken from AIM-Al marker run.