Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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262 Emission Scenarios 20 -A2\SV t> A2 AIM о M G LMAGL —í
Emission Scénarios 263 oi • • . . . . . . ^ 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Figure S-8c: Standardized global NjO emissions in the Bl family scenarios. The marker scenario is shown with a thick line without ticks, the globally harmonized scenarios with thin lines, and the non-harmonized scenarios with thin, dotted lines (see Table 4-3). 5.4.2.3. Bl Scenario Family The spread of emissions in the В1 family is quite large. The high-end reflects the agricultural assumptions used in the MiniCAM model, in which continued growth in meat production is driven by increases in per capita consumption that more than offset the reduction in population size (Figure 5- 8c). The Bl-AIM scenario has emissions near the low end of the range, because fertilizer use in developing countries is assumed to level off and better management increases productivity. Emissions from animal waste, mobile sources, and other sources in Bl-AIM are nearly constant. The Bl- IMAGE scenario (Bl family marker) has slowly increasing emissions through to 2050, which predominately originate from increases in livestock and the use of synthetic fertilizer (Table 5-6). After 2050, these emissions decline as the population size and associated demand for animal products declines (Figure 5-8c). The Bl-ASF scenario has an intermediate emission trajectory with a maximum of 11.5 MtN in 2050 and a subsequent decline to 9.3 MtN by 2100 (Figure 5-8c). The two illustrative scenarios AlG-MiniCAM and AIT MESSAGE display similar patterns of methane emissions as the A2 and В1 marker scenarios, respectively, and are therefore not discussed separately here. the sector (Table 5-6). Slow growth in agriculture and energyrelated emissions and declines of emissions from other sectors result in a relatively flat emissions proñle (Figure 5-8d). Emissions in the B2-ASF scenario are between the middle of the family range and its high end. The continuous increase in emissions in the B2-ASF scenario (which lie between the middle and high end of the family range) occurs through growth in nitrogen fertilizer use, in animal wastes, and in mobile sources. It is driven by increases in population and, to a smaller extent, by per capita increases in consumption of meat and dairy products. 5.4.2.5. Inter-Family Comparison The allocation of N2O emissions into source categories for the SRES marker scenarios is shown in Table 5-6. Separate emissions estimates for fertilized soils and manure were not available for all scenarios. As the emissions in Table 5-6 have not been standardized (see Box 5-1), base-year 1990 (and 2000) emissions are not the same for the different scenarios. In general, base-year emissions are likely to have greater differences at finer levels of detail. These differences result from different model calibrations, different model methodologies, and different classification schemes. 5.4.2.4. B2 Scenario Family The B2 family of scenarios covers a large range of N2O emissions, similar to that found for the Al family (see Figure 5-7). In the B2-MESSAGE scenario (B2 family marker), which has the lowest emissions in the family, improvements in agricultural productivity exceed increases in the demand for agricultural products and signiñcantly slow emission growth in Emissions from fertilized soils and manure from agricultural animals dominate N2O emissions in all the SRES markers. The fraction of total emissions from these two sources increases to about 80% in the A2, Bl, and B2 marker scenarios, while the agricultural fraction remains roughly the same over the 2P' century in the AlB marker. As discussed in Section 5.4.2, the range of future emissions is similar across each scenario family when all storyline inteфretations are considered. Therefore,
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E M I S S I O N S S C E N A R I O S
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PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF
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Contents Foreword Preface Summary f
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Preface The Intergovernmental Panel
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C O N T E N T S Why new Intergovern
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4 Summary for Policymakers Box SPM-
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6 Summary for Policymaker -3.5 i i
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8 Summary for PoUcymake. b Scenario
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lu Summary for Policymakers 0 I I I
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Summary for Policymakers such as fe
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14 Summary for Policymakers CQ so t
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16 Summary for Policymakers CQ ^ Ч
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18 Summary for Policymakers s I, I
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Summary for Policymakers P3 M ^ NO
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CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Backgr
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24 Technical Summai-y intended to b
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26 Technical Summary 1900 1950 2000
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28 Technical Summary Figure TS-2: S
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30 Technical Summaiy Box TS-3: SRES
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32 Technical Summary Figure TS-3: P
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34 Technical Summary Renewables/Nuc
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36 Technical Summary Figure TS-5 il
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38 Technical Summar 1900 1950 2000
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40 Technical Summary 40 1990 2000 2
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42 Technical Summary family). Chapt
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44 Technical Summary 1930 1960 1990
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46 Technical Summary does not exist
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48 Technical Summary CQ CP 00 00 l>
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50 Technical Summary n rí M •л
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52 Technical Summary pa Ю un ^ Ч
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54 Technical Summary (S ее CQ fN
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56 Technical Summary References: Al
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1 Background and Overview
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Background and Overview 61 1.1. Int
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Background and Overview 63 Box 1-1:
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Background and Overview 65 interven
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Background and Overview 67 powerful
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Background and Overview 69 1900 195
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Background and Overview 71 SRES Sce
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Background and Overview 73 1900 195
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Background and Overview characteriz
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2 An Overview of the Scenario Liter
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An Overview of the Scenario Literat
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hn Overview of the Scenario Literat
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3 Scenario Driving Forces
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Scenario Driving Forces 105 3.1. In
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Scenario Driving Forces 107 Section
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Scenario Driving Forces J 09 UN 199
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Scenario Driving Forces 111 deficit
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Scenario Driving Forces 113 recent
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Scénario Driving Forces lis Box 3-
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Scénario Driving Forces 117 Table
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Scenario Driving Forces 119 о I ht
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Scenario Driving Forces 121 in biol
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Scenario Driving Forces 123 0.15 0.
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Scenario Driving Forces 125 GDP per
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Scenario Driving Forces 127 aluminu
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Scenario Driving Forces 129 Table 3
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Scenario Driving Forces 131 cooling
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Scenario Driving Forces 133 saved f
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Scenario Driving Forces 135 give re
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Scenario Driving Forces 137 3.4.3.3
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Scenario Driving Forces 139 economi
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Scenario Driving Forces 141 growth"
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Scenario Driving Forces 143 (a) (b)
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Scenario Driving Forces 145 the ext
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Scénario Driving Forces 147 Global
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Scénario Driving Forces 149 anywhe
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Scenario Driving Forces 151 (a) Sul
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Scenario Driving Forces 153 Nakicen
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Scenaiio Driving Forces 155 3.7. Po
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Scenario Driving Forces 157 Overpro
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Scenario Driving Forces 159 Christi
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Scenario Drivmg Forces 161 lEA (Int
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Scénario Driving Forces 163 Murthy
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Scenario Driving Forces 165 Stevens
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4 An Overview of Scenarios
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An Overview of Scenarios 169 4.1. I
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An Overview of Scenaiios 171 within
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An Overview of Scenarios 173 • De
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An Overview of Scenarios 175 Table
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An Overview of Scenarios drivmg for
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An Overview of Scenarios 179 Figure
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An Overview of Scenarios 181 The A2
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An Overview of Scenarios 183 capita
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An Overview of Scenarios 185 ^ 4j f
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An Overview of Scenarios 187 scenar
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An Overview of Scenarios 189 • Hi
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An Overview of Scenarios 191
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An Overview of Scenarios 193 16 14
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An Overview of Scenarios 197 growth
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An Overview of Scenarios 199 Box 4-
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An Overview of Scenarios 201 Figure
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An Ovei-view of Scenarios 203 The b
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An Overview of Scenarios 205 I ^ 1
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An Overview of Scenarios 207 100 S
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Page 247 and 248: Emission Scenarios
Page 249 and 250: Emission Scénarios 241 5.1 Introdu
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Page 269: Emission Scénarios 261 The range o
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Page 295 and 296: Emission Scenarios 287 -OECD90 REF
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Summary Discussions and Recommendat
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SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARI
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324 SRES Terms of Reference: New IP
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II SRES Writing Team and SRES Revie
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SRES Writmg Team ami SRES Reviewers
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Ill Definition of SRES World Re
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Definition of SRES World Regions Me
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336 Six Modeling Approaches Six Mod
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338 Six Modeling Approaches e < .S
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340 Six Modeling Approaches Populat
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342 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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344 Six Modeling Approaches Table I
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346 Six Modeling Approaches for dev
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348 Data Description Database Descr
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350 Data Description Table V-2. Lis
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Open Process
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Open Process 355 Table VI'2: SRES w
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Open Process 357 1Г)-ч);ОООЧ
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Open Process 359 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 361 Preliminary Al Mar
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Open Process 363 Table VI-4b: Stand
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Open Process 365 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 367 Preliminary A2 Mar
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Open Process 369 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 371 Preliminary Bl Mar
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Open Process 373 Table VI-4d: Stand
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Open Process 375 Preliminary B2 Mar
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Open Process 377 Preliminary B2 Mar
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380 Statistical Table Table VII.l:
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3S2 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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384 Statistical Table Marker Scenar
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386 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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392 Statistical Table Scenario AIB-
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4U0 Statistical Table Scenario AlB-
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412 Statistical Table Scenario AlC-
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416 Statistical Table Scenario AIC-
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426 Statistical Table Scenario AIG-
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436 Statistical Table Illustrative
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442 Statistical Table Scenario AIT-
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452 Statis-tical Table Scenario AIT
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456 Statistical Table Scenario Alvl
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462 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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464 Statistical Table Scenario Alv2
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466 Statistical Table Scenario A2-A
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476 Statistical Table Scenario A2G-
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482 Statistical Table Scenario A2-I
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484 Statistical Table Scenario A2-M
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496 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-A
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500 Statistical Table Scenario В1-
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512 Statistical Table Scenario Bl-M
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522 Statistical Table OECDTO^^"'^'"
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526 Statistical Table Scenario BIT-
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532 Statistical Table Scenario BlHi
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542 Statistical Table Scenario B2-A
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554 Statistical Table Scenario B2-I
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556 Statistical Table Scenario B2-M
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558 Statistical Table Scenario B2-1
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572 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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574 Statistical Table Scenario B2C-
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576 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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578 Statistical Table Scenario BZHi
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580 Statistical Table Scenario B2Hi
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582 Acronyms and Abbreviations Acro
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584 Acronyms and Abbreviations USCB
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586 Chemical Symbols Chemical Symbo
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588 Units Table X-1: SI (Système I
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590 Glossary of Terms Glossary of T
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592 Glossary of Terms Fuel Switchin
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594 Glossary of Terms standards for
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XII List of Major IPCC Reports
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List of Major IPCC Reports 599 Tech
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Emissions Scenarios - IPCC

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